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US Dollar Analysis: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook

US Dollar Analysis: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook

2020-09-03 03:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
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US Dollar Analysis, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD – TALKING POINTS

  • EUR/USD branching out a new uptrend but will be coming across critical cross-section
  • AUD/USD rejected at 21-month swing-high. Drop accelerated after local GDP released
  • NZD/USD cleared 13-month resistance but price action is indicating slowing momentum

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD appears to be climbing along a newly-sprouted, modest uptrend since late July after jumping above the older slope of appreciation dating back to mid-May. The intersection of the two – labelled as “Key Juncture 2” may be critical. Breaking below that could result in a short-term pullback, followed by a brief congestive period before the broader uptrend resumes.

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EUR/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

For updates on geopolitical risks impacting markets, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

AUD/USD Outlook

AUD/USD was firmly rejected at the December 2018 swing-high at 0.7393, and was met with aggressive follow-through. Worse-than-expected Australia GDP data compounded AUD losses. Looking ahead, the pair will likely retest short-lived, former resistance-turned-support at 0.7295. Cracking that floor could open the door to flirting with a stubborn inflection range between 0.7206 and 0.7181.

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/USD

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

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NZD/USD Forecast

After breaking below the early-June uptrend, NZD/USD underwent a brief selling bout before stabilizing in mid-August and resuming its broader uptrend. The pair just recently cleared a technical landmark at 0.6726 with follow-through, which could precede another rise if momentum is sustained. Having said that, recent price action does paint a worrisome picture.

NZD/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing NZD/USD

NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

Leading up to resistance, the candles had large bodies and small wicks, indicating what appeared to be a robust underlying confidence in the pair’s upside trajectory. However, since the ceiling has been cleared, price action has become more timid as the pair trades at a 13-month high. Wobbly movement could make traders nervous and potentially catalyze a short-term pullback.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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