News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (AUG) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 57.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-27
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Forecast: $AUDUSD Action May Swing on Chinese Industrial Profits Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/09/26/Australian-Dollar-Forecast-AUDUSD-Action-May-Swing-on-Chinese-Industrial-Profits.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://…
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/YTdM3KVtUk
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/Bnih4YvTdg
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET on DailyFX! https://t.co/lxd5fZ5LG7
  • (Weekly Fundy) Crude Oil May Rise as Covid Case Growth Slows. WTI Eyes OPEC Outlook, Evergrande #CrudeOil #WTI #OPEC #Evergrande https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/09/26/Crude-Oil-May-Rise-as-Covid-Case-Growth-Slows-WTI-Eyes-OPEC-Outlook-Evergrande.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/76e2aGf3p0
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4Cnoc1dk0 https://t.co/NhsMS1EY4b
  • We are heading into the final trading days for the month of September and event risk thins out amid the $SPX's rebound. This is what history says for the 39th week of the year and here is my take on the variable factors: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/25/SP-500-and-Dollar-Have-Different-Views-for-Last-Week-of-September.html https://t.co/4OBVmrvI7I
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on AUD with our free guide, available today: https://www.dailyfx.com/free-trading-guides?ref-author=social#forecastschoices=AUD?QPID=30472&CHID=9 https://t.co/LHJi7CNFmM
  • $EURUSD https://t.co/KZyXX6p2oI
Australian Dollar, ASX 200 Pressure Resistance as Trade Tensions Brew

Australian Dollar, ASX 200 Pressure Resistance as Trade Tensions Brew

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Australian Dollar, ASX 200, Trade War, Coronavirus - Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar and ASX 200 soar on Moderna virus drug trial
  • Trouble brewing in US-China and Australia-China trade relations
  • Aussie index, ASX 200 losing steam as prices pressure resistance

Monday brought with it a broad resurgence in risk appetite that sent stocks on Wall Street to their best daily performance in almost 6 weeks, on average. This momentum made its way into the Australian benchmark stock index, the ASX 200. This also extended to the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar. Hopes for a coronavirus vaccine seemed to be the catalyst as Moderna reported ‘promising results’ in an early clinical trial.

Rising expectations of a vaccine helped bring forward anticipation of a faster-than-expected recovery in economic growth. Meanwhile Queensland – an Australian state – reported that the government is pushing forward a A$400 million road funding stimulus package. This may cool the need for further easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and may have explained why the Australian Dollar saw a cautious boost on the news.

Yet some trouble is brewing in the background that may pose a threat to the ASX 200 and Australian Dollar. US-China tensions have been on the rise, particularly as the White House looks into how the world’s second-largest economy handled the outbreak of the coronavirus. President Donald Trump has hinted that tariff hikes could be a possible punitive step even as US authorities into Chinese companies trading on the NYSE.

In response to Australia’s push for an inquiry into China’s handling of the Covid-19 outbreak, the latter imposed tariffs on barley imports from the former. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and an escalation that brings back the economic consequences of a trade war could risk denting upside potential from relaxing lockdown measures.

Develop the discipline and objectivity you need to improve your approach to trading consistently

ASX 200 Technical Outlook

With that in mind, the ASX 200 finds itself pressuring key resistance, which seems to be a range between 5489 to 5563. This area has kept price gains at bay since consolidation began in late April. Positive RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is fading, which could precede a turn lower. That would place the focus on swing low support at 5301, a barrier bolstered by rising trend lines from late March – see chart below. Extending gains exposes the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 5799.

ASX 200 4-Hour Chart

Australian Dollar, ASX 200 Pressure Resistance as Trade Tensions Brew

Chart Created in TradingView

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook

My majors-based Australian Dollar index – which averages the currency against USD, EUR, GBP and JPY – is also pressuring key resistance which has its inception from late April on the 4-hour chart below. Negative RSI divergence is present here as well, which could precede a turn lower. That may place the focus on rising support from early April – red lines. Otherwise, uptrend resumption may see the Australian Dollar approach its highest average price since February. Falling resistance from 2017 could maintain the dominant downtrend.

Majors-Based Australian Dollar Index (4-Hour Chart)

Australian Dollar, ASX 200 Pressure Resistance as Trade Tensions Brew

AUD Index Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES