News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD recently hit a fresh intraday low, falling from a morning high around 1.2180 by over 50 pips to currently trade around 1.2125. $EUR $USD https://t.co/sAmlUXzHRI
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.24%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ynTWWAOg90
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.15% Gold: 0.11% Oil - US Crude: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mGonw6VUtN
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.21% Wall Street: -0.35% FTSE 100: -0.94% France 40: -1.21% Germany 30: -1.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Doo7fWrpDf
  • Markets have digested the realization that the rollout of the vaccine campaign does mean an immediate solution to the current economic and social problems. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/6L1lXf8W82 https://t.co/29E7PkyyaV
  • The $DXY continues to hold above the psychological level of 90 and is testing around 90.30 this morning. $USD https://t.co/ZoLnf9pCDE
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Germany 30 for the first time since Dec 11, 2020 when Germany 30 traded near 13,135.60. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uMIVmW3vUW
  • ECB's Lane: - If favorable financing conditions can be maintained, maximum amount of asset purchases may not be necessary - Recent intensification of pandemic represents a significant downside risk, requires continuation of various fiscal support measures #ECB $EUR
  • ECB's Elderson: - Impact of the crisis on the European banking sector has yet to be fully revealed - Consequences of Brexit still need to be dealt with - It is "high time" to complete the EU banking union through institutional/regulatory architecture, deposit insurance #ECB $EUR
  • Italy's coalition Democratic Party (PD) wants Conte to resign and guarantees support for him as head of new government - PD Lawmakers $EUR
Indian Rupee May Fall as US Dollar, USD/INR Rise on Virus Cases

Indian Rupee May Fall as US Dollar, USD/INR Rise on Virus Cases

Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Indian Rupee, US Dollar, USD/INR, Coronavirus, RBI, India - Talking Points

  • Indian Rupee declined as gauge of local manufacturing activity fell
  • Increasing Indian coronavirus cases may prolong social distancing
  • USD/INR may gain down the road but faces fading momentum now

Indian Rupee Declines as US Dollar Gains, Where to?

Indian Rupee selling pressure was reignited against the US Dollar in the aftermath of last week’s emergency rate cut from the RBI. In addition to cutting benchmark lending rates, the Reserve Bank of India dialed up long-term repurchasing operations in an effort to boost liquidity conditions amid the coronavirus outbreak. Earlier this week, the RBI also increased short-term funding limits by 30% across the country

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

These measures are certainly welcome. Moody’s – a credit ratings agency – downgraded the outlook for Indian banks to negative from stable. Prior to the virus pandemic, the country was attempting to overcome from a troubled banking sector. Meanwhile the latest Markit manufacturing PMI print showed local growth at its weakest since November after making a sharp U-turn following January – see chart below.

Indian Manufacturing PMI

The latest reading of confirmed coronavirus cases in India are at 2,543 at the time of writing – see next chart below. That is up 27.27% from Wednesday. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a 3-week nationwide lockdown towards the end of March. If cases continue to grow exponentially as more citizens are tested, social distancing measures might be extended which may further hurt growth.

Over the next 24 hours, USD/INR may focus on key US economic data. Non-farm payrolls are expected to shrink -100k last month which would be the weakest since 2010. A softer-than-expected outcome risks deteriorating market sentiment and fuel demand for the haven-linked US Dollar. That may push USD/INR higher as emerging markets grapple with capital outflow risks.

USD/INR Versus Indian Coronavirus Cases

Indian Rupee May Fall as US Dollar, USD/INR Rise on Virus Cases

USD/INR Chart Created in TradingView

Indian Rupee Technical Analysis

On a daily chart, USD/INR is attempting to breach the March peak after prices stopped short of the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 76.67. Negative RSI divergence is present and warns that upside momentum is fading. If that precedes a turn lower, rising support from February may maintain the dominant upward trajectory – pink line. Otherwise resuming the uptrend towards the midpoint of the extension at 77.38.

USD/INR Daily Chart

Indian Rupee May Fall as US Dollar, USD/INR Rise on Virus Cases

USD/INR Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES