We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/9CV6iZt40j
  • My weekend trading video: 'S&P 500 Rises on Trump China Presser, #NFPs and Rate Decisions Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/30/SP-500-Rises-on-Trump-China-Presser-NFPs-and-Rate-Decisions-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/ZvoGoibzj1
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/b9ZWRd4cTr https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/iL7xlHLBiF
  • #Gold has a short-term bullish set-up that may play nicely with USD weakening. The longer and shorter-term path of least resistance remains higher. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/B4MVrg8f6i
US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

2020-03-31 05:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso – Talking Points

  • US Dollar fell as upbeat sentiment slowed emerging market capital outflows
  • Focus for markets may shift from stimulus bets to key US economic data next
  • Will USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR and USD/PHP move on local PMI data?

US Dollar ASEAN Weekly Recap

The US Dollar retreated against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit while gaining cautious ground against the Indonesian Rupiah last week. The passage of a US$2 trillion fiscal package from the world’s largest economy amid the coronavirus outbreak improved market sentiment. Wall Street soared, resulting in the best 5-day performance in over a decade which undermined the necessity for the haven-linked US Dollar.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide
US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/IDR

Gains in equities from developed economies echoed into developing ones. Indexes tracking shares from ASEAN nations such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines trimmed losses on the monthly charts below. This resulted in lower shadows forming. With that said, these are still on pace for their worst average monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

ASEAN Stocks Trimmed Losses Last Week

US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Chart Created in TradingView

Emerging Market Capital Outflows Partially Recovered

As expected, emerging market capital flows were and arguably remain a key factor for the trajectory of USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR and USD/PHP ahead. On the next chart below, my ASEAN-based US Dollar index declined last week as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) rose alongside a proxy tracking the flow of capital around developing economies.

The Singapore Dollar also received a boost after the local government announced additional fiscal stimulus measures. On Monday, USD/SGD spiked lower briefly after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reduced the slope of its currency band to zero. No changes were made to the width of the band as the MAS envisioned the economy entering a recession this year with great certainty.

US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Event Risk This Week – US Data and ASEAN Manufacturing PMIs

US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi hinted that a further bipartisan fiscal stimulus package may not be on the table until after the Easter holiday. With that in mind, the focus for market mood may start shifting to economic data outcomes from the world’s largest economy. These will continue to offer a better insight into the damage social isolation is having on growth.

On this front the US Dollar could rally if local ISM PMI, jobless claims and non-farm payrolls disappoint relative to economists’ expectations. That may induce a “risk-off” tilt that reignites demand for the highly-liquid US Dollar. This may also rekindle investors’ unwinding of relatively riskier exposure. That could see emerging market capital outflows resuming course as the flight for safety boosts government bond prices.

Official gauges of Chinese business activity – both manufacturing and non-manufacturing – showed a sharp rebound in March after record losses. That helped fuel an optimistic tone in sentiment relatively early into this week’s session. Yet officials warned that it does not necessarily mean that the world’s second-largest economy is back to normal.

On Wednesday Malaysian, Indonesian and Philippine Markit manufacturing PMI data will cross the wires. Similar data from Singapore is due on Friday. Yet their respective currencies may look past local developments for broader themes discussed in this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook. The upbeat mood this week thus far risks sending USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/MYR on average to the downside.

-- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.