News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.53% France 40: 0.48% Wall Street: 0.36% Germany 30: 0.07% FTSE 100: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/HMELco8gcz
  • Gold (XAUUSD) - Will the 50% Fib @ $1,763/oz hold this sell-off? #xauusd #gold @DailyFXTeam https://t.co/Oe9jyzvHOt
  • Iran Revolutionary Guards Commander says Iran will avenge killings of scientists as it has in the past - This is in response to reports that an Iranian nuclear scientist has been assassinated
  • Gold takes out both 1800 and 200DMA (1798), support at 1760-65 Silver down 4%, keep in mind, volumes notably thin amid the US Holiday, thus moves are likely exacerbated
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.40%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.98%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lGo7KC5qlA
  • UK not accepting EU's fish offer - Sun Reporter $GBP
  • EU sources now saying Barnier won't be armed with this proposal, both sides still far apart - Daily Express https://t.co/LnGQ50eLXj
  • Forex Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Hg4EBo6N2N
  • What factors are influencing $GBP this quarter? Get your free forecast here:https://t.co/uFoEr9dXhE https://t.co/hwVk99eQQY
  • What are some key influences Black Friday has on the economy and stock markets? Find out: https://t.co/KIsvaIWZDN https://t.co/lCDBH1Pk2I
Australian Dollar, Stocks Brace for Multi-Million US Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar, Stocks Brace for Multi-Million US Jobless Claims

2020-03-26 04:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

US Jobless Claims Data, Market Risks Points:

  • The economic data are now catching up with the initial coronavirus impact period
  • New US jobless claimant numbers are all-but certain to be in the multi millions
  • Much of this bad news may well be in the price of risk assets already, but a hit seems inevitable

The coronavirus’ terrible spread has battered risk sensitive assets like commodity currencies and equity this year. Massive programs of government stimulus brought prices back from the dead despite the unstoppable drip-feed of economic data practically guaranteeing global recession, but Thursday’s US labor market numbers seem likely to pose an insurmountable hurdle.

Timely Purchasing Managers Index releases from around the world have already jolted markets with the scale of contraction. However, employment data are so crucial to everything else economic, from consumer spending through to monetary policy predictions, that it’s in these releases that fears tend to really crystalize in the markets.

1230GMT will bring official statistics on the numbers making initial claims for unemployment-related benefits in the week to March 21. The average expectation was that coronavirus shutdowns will see the claimant count soar to 1,500,000, from 281,000 in the previous week. However, California Governor Gavin Newsom told reporters on Wednesday that a million in his state alone had already applied for benefits this month. Economists at RBC Capital Markets tip a range of between five and ten million for new nationwide claims, according to a Reuters report.

A Big Hit, A Lasting Hit

Obviously this would represent a catastrophic economic hit and, whatever the White House may wish for when it comes to an early restart for the economy, likely an enduring one. Moreover, stimulus programs can only really boost recovery, they can’t fire the starting gun on it. Only a crucial, sustained fall in coronavirus infection rates can do that, and no one knows how long that’s going to take.

The big question when it comes to jobless claims data is now just how huge the hit is going to be. There can’t by now be much hope still priced in to markets as the number approach, but it’s hard to see an outturn in multiple millions being taken on the chin.

The Australian Dollar is perhaps the classic, widely traded and growth-correlated asset and has accordingly already suffered terribly from the coronavirus’ spread. Against the haven US Dollar the Aussie has already shed 40% this year, a big hit even by the standards of other growth bets such as equity and energy.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart.

The past week or so has seen a modest bounce, as those stimulus programs were unveiled around the world. However, that bonce appears to have faded. Confirmation that multi-million new claimants were added to the roster last week could well see last week’s seventeen-year lows back in play very easily.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by David Cottle
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

Commodity Currencies, Equity Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-tg.html?ref-author=Cottle.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES