News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/VzEbQn8blk
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/ETF52Q2sLz
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/AXZxK8Abrh
  • Global stock markets may see turbulent volatility if darkening clouds over Washington’s relations with Beijing turn into a geopolitical storm. Which assets will be the lifeboat? Find out here:https://t.co/RkFI6qAyik https://t.co/9Ppa4d48Ql
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/e0liqVDzw6
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major peers, but there is room for a near-term climb that wouldn’t necessarily overturn a bearish technical bias. USD/JPY is eyeing support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AEnQCXnwAL https://t.co/tuq7DDF3jE
  • Protests in Colombia may continue to pressure the Peso, but surging commodity prices and a weaker Greenback could curb USD/COP gains. Get your market update here:https://t.co/vcVH75xuKI https://t.co/kEvbsagB4a
  • Money never sleeps.... https://t.co/mAkpWd2M3O
  • The US exchanges are closed and now we have to turn over to the cryptocurrency charts to monitor developments in risk trends over the weekend. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to separate systemic sentiment influences vs isolated issues (like a celebrity's tweet about a coin)
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.93% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.72% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.55% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.50% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rzD7Gp4VIC
USD Aims Higher vs NOK and SEK on Fed Minutes, Iran Election

USD Aims Higher vs NOK and SEK on Fed Minutes, Iran Election

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

US Dollar, FOMC Minutes, Iran Election, USD/SEK Analysis, USD/NOK Outlook – TALKING POINTS

  • FOMC minutes may push US Dollar higher if accompanying text cools 2020 rate cut bets
  • USD could also rise on risk aversion from impact of coronavirus and the Iranian election
  • Swedish Krona could retrace gains if CPI and unemployment statistics miss expectations

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK AHEAD OF FOMC MINUTES

The US Dollar may appreciate against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if the FOMC minutes reveal that officials are comparatively more hawkish than what markets had expected. After Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimonies last week, markets gained some insight as to how the head of the central bank feels about the economy. This came on the back of other FOMC members speaking throughout the week.

Having said that, this does not suggest that there is no room for hawkish surprises. Political uncertainty ranging from a no-deal Brexit to the US-China trade war has been reduced, and as such, it has given the global economy a chance to recover. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook confirmed that a trend of global stabilization is taking place, though the coronavirus could derail the trajectory.

CORONAVIRUS MAY PRESSURE NOK, SEK VS USD and JPY

The potency of fear about the coronavirus impacting financial markets has shown to have varying degrees of influence that is in large are predicated on the nature of the news. More specifically, the severity of the updates. Last week, news about the new method of calculating the number of cases added several thousand more to those infected, causing S&P 500 futures to retreat with NOK and SEK while the anti-risk JPY and USD rose.

We may see a similar dynamic like this play out in the week ahead, whereby an update on the Wuhan virus may elicit a strong risk-off bias and push commodity-linked FX lower at the expense of anti-risk assets. In the coming weeks, what investors will be eager to see what the estimated numbers will be for China Q1 GDP since it may reveal how the virus has impacted the Asian giant’s growth.

SEK MAY FALL ON SWEDEN CPI, JOBS DATA

The Swedish Krona face selling pressure if Swedish CPI data for January underwhelms in addition to the publication of unemployment data. While the Riksbank has said it would first use non-negative interest rate measures to counter a downturn first, unexpectedly soft price growth and shaky jobs data could cause officials to reconsider. A higher unemployment rate could also expose a growing threat in the financial system.

IRAN ELECTION

As outlined in my US Dollar weekly forecast, the Greenback may rise against its major counterparts, particularly those that have a predisposed sensitivity to oscillations in global sentiment. While the petroleum-linked Norwegian Krone has sometimes benefited from politically-induced supply disruption fears, the recent escalation of tension between Iran and the US has led to a selloff in NOK against USD and JPY.

The assassination of the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani is the most recent example. After reports confirmed the official was killed, crude oil prices rose on the expectation that a heightened conflict between the US and Iran would choke supply and push prices higher. In the upcoming election, conservative hardliners are expected to win a larger number of seats Parliament, potentially raising the prospect of conflict down the line.

USD/SEK PRICE CHART

USD/SEK is trading on the lower cusp of the trend-defining resistance area between 9.7228 and 9.6878 (gold-dotted lines). If the pair fails to clear resistance with follow-through, the next area USD/SEK will likely test will be the January uptrend. If broken, it may precede a bearish correction. As the range between resistance and the slope of appreciation narrows, traders get closer to seeing if a bearish or bullish move is up ahead.

USD/SEK – Daily Chart

Chart showing USD/SEK

USD/SEK chart created using TradingView

USD/NOK FORECAST

As outlined in last week’s forecast, USD/NOK broke below the January uptrend, but its decline has not been very aggressive – at least so far. This may therefore speak to an underlying bullish bias propelling the pair higher as it treads below resistance at 9.3057. The upcoming FOMC meeting may be the catalyst needed to catapult the pair beyond the ceiling rather than retreating to support at 9.2007.

USD/NOK – Daily Chart

USD Aims Higher vs NOK and SEK on Fed Minutes, Iran Election

USD/NOK chart created using TradingView

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES