Top Trading Lessons: Global Markets Aren’t a Two Player Game
How often do you catch yourself referring to trades or analysis as an effort to 'beat the market'? For myself, the answer is far too often given the fallacy in logic that it can represent. As humans, our brains tend to simplify complex systems so as to come to an answer on an open-ended question or decision to a problem with to many variables. That can be a good thing, because it can help us make decisions rather than be frozen and overwhelmed. That said, there are certain efforts we should make to avoid over-simplifying or pursue a perspective that is more the result of expedience rather than a rigorous method to determine what matters most.
The trouble with mentally positioning yourself against 'the market' is that it presumes that we are of equal scale and consequence to the collective capital in the vast financial system. That is a ridiculous notion purely on the face of it. Short of a top central bank (with a very dubious mandate) or government, we cannot fend off, override or even distort the (liquid) markets. What we can do is take advantage of the changing priorities of the majority or the inconsistencies in conflicting needs.
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