Thanksgiving Trading Talking Points:
- S&P 500 reaches new high on historically quiet Thanksgiving week
- Volume and trading range to pick up in the following week as markets mull Black Friday data and the holiday shopping season kicks off
- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide
A SHORT HOLIDAY TRADING WEEK BRINGS LOWER VOLUME AND RANGE
The last trading day before Thanksgiving has concluded and with it brings new highs across US equity markets. The S&P 500 is up an impressive 3.82% on the month and an equally impressive Year-to-Date performance of 25.80%, the best performance since 2013. Meanwhile, volatility has been crushed with the VIX Index slumping to its lowest point since October of 2018.
When looking at Thanksgiving trading weeks of the past, a clear trend emerges. Both volume and range within the key US index trend under their normal levels. This Is to be expected given the fact of a shortened trading week, with US markets closed on thanksgiving and major US equity markets only trading for half the day on Friday. However, the week following paints a different picture.
Week of Thanksgiving Chart
The week following Thanksgiving in US markets gives rise to an increase in volatility and an increased trading range within the S&P 500. The past four years have seen volume over 110% following the thanksgiving week compared to the 13-week average. While it would be logical to conclude that traders are making up for lost trading days in the previous week, the more likely culprit points to the start of the US holiday spending season, Black Friday.
Black Friday is the largest shopping day in the United States and traders are mulling for data surrounding how retailers performed in the following week. As retail sales data is released, the markets must digest the information, leading to a battle to find a new equilibrium price and in turn, volume intensifies as the market searches out these new levels and shares exchange hands rapidly.
Week Following Thanksgiving
With that in mind, it would be of little surprise if the trend of increased volume and range were to manifest in markets, as the economy has come to a delicate point, with recession talk echoing . While economic data has recently taken a turn to the upside, there is still concern that the record-breaking economic expansion in the US could be nearing an end. Anything less than a strong turnout from US spenders over the weekend could not only spike volatility into the week following Thanksgiving, but perhaps, inject recession fears back into the market full stop.
Read More on What Stocks to Watch Surrounding Black Friday: Top Retail Stocks to Watch Ahead of Black Friday
--Written by Thomas Westwater, Intern Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater
DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.
