News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDMXN is keeping nicely to its descending trendline, aiming below the 20 pesos mark in the short-term. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/QwHGHAPGgI https://t.co/ud5X4JasOG
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/QoIoOpg7De
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST (12:30GMT) on DailyFX! - https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • The $AUDUSD chart is tilting towards lower levels, will need to round the corner soon to turn outlook bullish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/iOpjZyKCUu https://t.co/PNujRmbnPF
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAErd70 https://t.co/F0sw8vDx5k
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed an inverse “Head and Shoulders” pattern, which is typically viewed as a bullish trend reversal indicator. Prices may advance further to challenge their all-time highs. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/tvkE2y6X03 https://t.co/nxxMZFB3Pu
  • Earnings season begins this week with the arrival of quarterly reports from the country’s largest banks. Can they shrug off losses from the recent Archegos blowup and rally higher or will risk aversion take root? Market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Q0LEH8fHzu https://t.co/ywVQ1KwZ26
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here: https://t.co/muYkTNXH7s https://t.co/i70XLrni1w
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/Zl7sfu0OT2
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/QqlZ2dQgVv
USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP Remain Glued to Trade War News

USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP Remain Glued to Trade War News

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

ASEAN Fundamental Outlook

  • US Dollar rose versus SGD, MYR, IDR, PHP and INR on trade war woes
  • Trade deal delay risks sending ASEAN FX falling as the Greenback gains
  • USD/SGD may look past CPI, Dollar may weaken on GDP, PCE outcomes

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

US Dollar and ASEAN FX Weekly Recap

The US Dollar aimed higher against its major counterparts this past week, and its strength also extended into ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and in Southern Asia the Indian Rupee, all depreciated versus the Greenback. As anticipated, the primary focus for some of these exotic FX continued being updates in US-China trade talks.

This is likely why USD/MYR climbed despite better-than-expected Malaysian inflation data. In October, CPI clocked in at 1.1% y/y versus 1.0% anticipated. The Singapore Dollar also failed to find much support behind rosy local GDP data. The Rupiah brushed off the Bank of Indonesia leaving rates unchanged at 5.00% as the central bank lowered reserve requirement ratios. Policymakers left the door open to more easing.

For timely updates on ASEAN and Southeast Asia currencies, make sure to follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX

USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP Remain Glued to Trade War News

US-China Trade Talks – Key Updates

The 20-day rolling correlation coefficient between my ASEAN-based US Dollar Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index weakened slightly to -0.88 from -0.92 last week. Still, this remains a very important relationship for the USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/MYR. A value closer towards -1 indicates an increasingly stronger inverse dynamic.

With that in mind, a breakdown in trade talks remains a clear fundamental risk for these currencies while a resolution will likely result in broad strength. This past week, there have been rising doubts about the two countries reaching a “phase one” agreement by the end of this year. Worryingly, US President Donald Trump noted that while they are “very close” to a deal, he is not “anxious to make it”.

This could mean that he would like to see China make further concessions. But, the country has made its position about tariffs well known. Beijing wants to see the US not only halt raising tariffs, but also begin unwinding them. Trump has shown reluctance to commit to this maneuver as issues remain unresolved in intellectual property theft. The US is still on course to raise tariffs against China in the middle of December.

Check out my technical outlook for ASEAN currencies ahead!

The Importance of a US-China Trade Deal for ASEAN Currencies

USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP Remain Glued to Trade War News

ASEAN Index Chart Created Using TradingView

ASEAN Event Risk – Singapore CPI and Industrial Production, China PMI

The ASEAN docket is looking fairly light in the week ahead with Singapore CPI later today. Like with local GDP data last week, these inflation figures may not do much to drive follow-through in USD/SGD given the focus on the US-China trade war. On Tuesday Singapore will also release industrial production. Over the weekend, China will report the next round of official manufacturing PMI data.

Check out my Singapore Dollar currency profile to learn about how the MAS conducts monetary policy!

US Event Risk – GDP, Fed’s Preferred Measure of Inflation

At home, the US Dollar has a couple of key economic event risk to watch. The week ahead brings US GDP and PCE deflator data on Wednesday. The latter is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Upside data surprises from the US have notably cooled since September, opening the door to disappointing outcomes ahead. That may continue fueling 2020 Fed rate cut bets, pushing the US Dollar lower.

Keep in mind that on Thursday, US stock exchanges will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. That will reduce liquidity conditions heading into and out of the holiday, increasing the risk of heightened volatility

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES