We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold Prices Down, Not Out as China Cheerleads Stock Markets- https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/07/06/Gold-Prices-Down-Not-Out-as-China-Cheerleads-Stock-Markets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD #China #stocks
  • Understanding the US-Mexico relationship and how the ebb and flow of economic activity in the former impacts the latter is crucial for trading USD/MXN. Get your $USDMXN market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/oCRV13zbF0 https://t.co/ZnqRxkYayI
  • 🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence Final (JUN) Actual: -27 Previous: -31 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-06
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.22%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 69.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MNLQfuvr2U
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.33% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.30% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/1neF13YBgw
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence Final (JUN) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -31 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-06
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.30% France 40: 2.21% Wall Street: 1.75% FTSE 100: 1.54% US 500: 1.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hossI2xmCO
  • A macro forex trading guide exploring the US-Canada relationship and how to trade the Canadian Dollar through the prism of the Core-Perimeter model. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/dF51UMcGFC https://t.co/Ba5JxKQFrH
  • RT @DanielGMoss: Risk assets following Chinese equities higher as the #ChinaA50 index breaks to fresh 12-year highs The trade-sensitive $…
  • RT @margaretyjy: The FTSE China A50 Index hit 12-year high at 15,600 points. Mainland China brokerage firms were reported to see new accoun…
US-China Trade Deal Optimism Leaves Hong Kong Stocks Behind

US-China Trade Deal Optimism Leaves Hong Kong Stocks Behind

2019-11-13 03:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

HANG SENG INDEX, HONG KONG PROTESTS, US-CHINA TRADE WAR – Talking Points:

  • US-China trade deal hopes lift Asia Pacific stocks, cool Fed rate cut bets
  • Hong Kong market lags amid growing violence as protesters, police clash
  • Technical positioning warns the Hang Seng Index uptrend remains intact

Where will markets end 2019? See our Q4 forecasts for currencies, commodities and stock indexes!

Most Asia Pacific stock indexes have tracked alongside the unwinding of 2020 Fed interest rate cut expectations (red shaded area on the chart below) in recent months. Cautious optimism about the prospects for a resolution of the US-China trade war alongside diminishing worries about a no-deal Brexit have buoyed risk appetite, boosting equities even as it erased certainty in further easing next year.

Chart of Asia Pacific stocks rising with Fed policy outlook on US-China trade deal hopes

Chart created with TradingView

Shares listed in Hong Kong (green line above) and Shanghai (yellow line) have underperformed however. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Australia’s ASX 200 (white and turquoise lines, respectively) are trading at or near year-to-date highs, Chinese issues – both mainland and otherwise – are facing potent selling pressure. The Hang Seng Index has been particularly battered, suffering the worst 3-day drop since August.

Increasingly violent clashes between protesters and law enforcement probably account for soggy performance. Demonstrations erupted in June in opposition to proposed law allowing extradition from Hong Kong to the mainland. The measure has since been withdrawn but activists remain in the streets, demanding full democracy and police accountability.

HONG KONG STOCKS TREND STILL POINTS UPWARD (AT LEAST FOR NOW)

Nevertheless, technical positioning warns that the path of least resistance still favors the upside. The Hang Seng Index broke resistance guiding it lower since April at the beginning of this month, signaling a bullish pivot. The recent selloff brought prices back for a retest of this barrier – where rising trend support and a chart inflection zone dating back to June now act as reinforcement – but it has not been breached.

If sellers manage a daily close below 26322, the bullish implications of the current setup will appear to have been neutralized. The next layer of support comes in at 25507, followed by the mid-August low at 24791. Immediate resistance is at 27949, the November 7 swing top. Claiming a foothold above this level would suggest the next leg in the emerging uptrend has begun.

Chart of Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong's stocks benchmark

Chart created with TradingView

HANG SENG INDEX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.