We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trade deal bets kept the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit afloat despite $USD strength. This is the key fundamental driver for #ASEAN FX.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/aB8qP3JsB4 https://t.co/oAF2XxyNak
  • European Opening Calls from IG: #FTSE 7330 +0.51% #DAX 13262 +0.62% #CAC 5932 +0.52% #AEX 599 +0.61% #MIB 23636 +0.66% #IBEX 9217 +0.47% #STOXX 3712 +0.63%
  • The $USDINR rate could rise as the Nifty 50 sinks after Indian Industrial Production shrank by the most since 2011, fueling RBI rate cut bets amid the ongoing US-China trade war. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/1PzYH3xCdV https://t.co/AqdtzJN0w1
  • (Analyst Pick) USD/JPY Outlook Bearish on Yen Chart Breakout, Trade Wars $USDJPY #Yen #TradeWars - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/daniel_dubrovsky/2019/11/15/USDJPY-Outlook-Bearish-on-Yen-Chart-Breakout-Trade-Wars.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/5CKAA0e7Pc
  • #GBP, #NOK and #SEK are expected to be the most-active #G10 currencies against the #USD with one-week implied volatility at 7.85, 7.82 and 7.15 respectively [delayed]
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.63%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.34%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wyEJd6C1d2
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.10% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/PmNFR94G9T
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.49% Germany 30: 0.49% US 500: 0.37% Wall Street: 0.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/36B4iG0q0W
  • A chart from my trading video for today ('S&P 500 Trading Quiet and Divergence Builds Pressure, Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi Drop' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/11/15/SP-500-Trading-Quiet-and-Divergence-Builds-Pressure-Dollar-Aussie-and-Kiwi-Drop.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719) showing $EURUSD and the Euro volatility index https://t.co/2uMzpD4tuC
  • Why should you set trading goals? How can it help regardless of what your #tradingstyle is? Find out: https://t.co/AYdD7ODlv1 https://t.co/MS0SW4Fozm
Japanese Yen Outlook: Did the BoJ Just Admit Policy Failure?

Japanese Yen Outlook: Did the BoJ Just Admit Policy Failure?

2019-11-06 03:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst

Bank of Japan Talking Points:

  • Governor Haruhiko Kuroda argued for a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus this week
  • Fair enough, but this is a far cry from claims that monetary policy alone could work
  • Could big changes be ahead for the way markets think about the Yen?

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

After years of extraordinary monetary stimulus is the Bank of Japan tacitly admitting that the game is up?

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Tuesday that the ultra-low interest environment makes any fiscal stimulus in which Tokyo might intend to indulge far more powerful and that a mix of the fiscal and the monetary might be far more powerful than just one or the other.

Taken alone this is an innocuous and perhaps even obvious remark.

But then we come to the context. All 576 trillion Yen’s worth of it (US$5.3 trillion). For that is the staggering, GDP-topping amount to which the BoJ has expanded its balance sheet in its attempt to stimulate domestic pricing power.

Much Expended, Little Achieved

Not enough context for you? Consider the negative interest rates, the yield curve control, all ramped up for years and to what end? Well, looking at the latest data, consumer prince inflation in Japan was running at an annualized rate of… 0.2%. It hasn’t been anywhere near the BoJ’s 2% target since 2015. Yes, Japan has managed to shake off the outright deflation which has dogged it for long periods this century. But a 0.2% price rise isn’t much of a buffer is it?

Now of course Japan is not alone in this. Inflation has been stubbornly weak for much of the post-crisis period across developed economies. Record monetary largesse has failed to stimulate it elsewhere too. New International Monetary Fund head Kristalina Georgieva called last for a far more active role for governments in boosting growth.

But Japan does stand alone in the scale of stimulus attempted and the clear paucity of result achieved.

‘Powerful Easing’ No Longer Enough

What’s more Kuroda used to aver almost whenever he got near a microphone that ‘powerful monetary easing’ would be more than sufficient to hit that target. ‘Just give it time’ was the approach.

Well that tune certainly seems to be changing, with acceptance now public that the central bank could probably use a little help. Of course, the markets have doubted for ages whether that target was reachable. Some Japanese central bankers and academics have even joined them. We wondered earlier this year whether the clear fact that stimulus wasn’t delivering might force a shift.

What comes next is of course the major question, and it doesn’t have a clear answer. Any shift in the BoJ’s target would be seismic for the markets and might well see the Japanese Yen gain huge support, at least initially, as a wave of risk aversion supports such haven assets.

Further out a lower, more realistic inflation target might see the currency more inclined to move on its own domestic economic data than it is today. Right now, those numbers hardly matter in monetary policy terms. For as long as inflation remains subdued the BoJ is compelled by its own logic to keep the taps wide open.

This story bears close watching through the trade and Brexit hubbub. Japan was a leader in extraordinary monetary stimulus and an early test case for the uneven results it has delivered everywhere.

Is Kuroda now cast as reluctant author of the guide book to walking away?

Japanese Yen Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.