We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Euro’s struggle to move higher against a range of currencies continues and without further support this is likely to continue into the year-end. Get your $EURUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/myZ7R0eGUb https://t.co/12WJd53Cx4
  • The #Dow Jones moved confidently higher last week as it added onto recent gains. Now, #stocks will aim to continue their rally while enjoying support from prior all-time highs. Get your technical analysis on #equities from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Qb89HIWxBY https://t.co/HMguTvD157
  • How can you trade #forex after a major release? Find out: https://t.co/sdxcXb8q60 #tradingstyle https://t.co/LNcbvVhIc2
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/mk1w1DM2Rh https://t.co/m763epaH2C
  • Crude #oil prices, $NOK and $SEK may rise if Donald Trump’s speech on trade war developments amplifies market buoyancy against the backdrop of critical US CPI and retails sales data. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/5rdK7xsQNq https://t.co/YnlQjKNZdS
  • RT @next_china: U.S., China chief trade negotiators spoke by phone on Saturday, Xinhua reports https://t.co/dMQtd0g4jY
  • The $AUDUSD and $EURUSD downtrend may prolong as traders counterintuitively buy into their descent. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD uptrend may accelerate on rising net-short bets. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/dlzJ31kf3f https://t.co/xp8P9MmCgb
  • As we head into next week, Cable is continuing to digest the massive leg higher last month, which at some point soon could mean another surge. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/LJ42YhDe3X https://t.co/5hGwhGBpLB
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/urMnUCq4fn
  • RT @markets: White-hot pot stocks have flamed out in spectacular fashion https://t.co/3GsVsRyZaZ
Crude Oil Outlook: Brent Eyes Brazil Auction Amid Trade War Talks

Crude Oil Outlook: Brent Eyes Brazil Auction Amid Trade War Talks

2019-11-06 04:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Junior Currency Analyst

Crude Oil Price Forecast, OPEC Report, Trade Wars – TALKING POINTS

  • Crude oil prices may rise if Brazil auction attracts wave of capital inflow
  • OPEC lowered demand forecasts but crude oil still ended the day higher
  • US-China trade war optimism has been buoying crude – but will it last?

Learn how to use political-risk analysis in your trading strategy!

OPEC Report: World Oil Outlook

Crude oil prices closed a little over 1.30 percent higher at the end of Tuesday’s trading session despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revising down its outlook for future demand. The energy cartel cited “signs of stress” in the global economy and anticipates members will have to deepen cuts to production in order to keep prices at profitable levels.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said that the “continuous surge…of non-OPEC supply, led by tight oil from the United States, and to some lesser degree, Canada, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan and other non-OPEC countries” has contributed to the supply glut. He added that crude oil prices could stage a recovery in 2020, though this may be somewhat dependent on OPEC agreeing to deeper cuts at its meeting in December.

US-China Trade War: Impact on Crude Oil Prices

Since January, OPEC+ has agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day with the accord extending through March of 2020. The biggest factor that may mute the upside force of these supply cuts is the ongoing trade war negotiations between the US and China. The biggest fundamental headwind to global growth has been the US-Sino economic conflict which has weakened the demand for vital inputs like crude oil.

Chart showing crude oil prices

Therefore, crude oil prices are in large part at the mercy of the erratic nature of trade talks between Beijing and Washington. However, recent progress on that front has helped uplift market mood and led a selloff in the haven-linked US Dollar and a surge in sentiment-linked assets like crude oil and emerging market FX. The revival of market buoyancy may be offering OPEC members an ethereal moment of hope – but will it last?

Chart showing emerging markets

To quote US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, there could be a “slip up” in negotiations. The WTO has recently awarded China the right to slap over $3 billion worth of tariffs against the US from a dispute dating back to Obama’s tenure. Furthermore, officials still have to resolve key structural issues relating to intellectual property rights and Washington’s request for Beijing to reform its state-owned enterprises.

Brazil Auction: How Will it Impact Crude Oil Prices?

Latin America’s largest economy is about to hold one of the most expensive oil auctions in history. Firms are expecting to pay as much as $26.5 billion for the right to access deep-sea fields that may contain up to 15 billion barrels of crude oil according to the National Petroleum Agency. The crude deposits are lodged under thick layers of salt and are nearly twice the size of Norway’s reserves.

Some of the firms that will participate in the auction include Brazilian state-owned Petrobras, ExxonMobil and Chevron. Other major players have rescinded their bids because of the price tag on the deposits. However, the premium on these drilling rights comes in large part from the removal of “exploratory risk” through studies conducted by Petrobras that have confirmed that these reserves hold ample deposits of crude oil.

Depending on how enthusiastic firms are to bid for these rights – as expressed by how much capital the auction is able to generate – it could be read as a bullish outlook for crude oil. As a result, it could indirectly lead to capital flowing into petroleum-linked FX like the Canadian Dollar, Russian Ruble and Norwegian Krone. Recent market-wide optimism about US-China trade talks may amplify interest in Brazil’s oil-rich deposits.

If you’re interested in learning more about Brazilian markets, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri!


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.