News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • ZAR pounces on favorable global factors. Local manufacturing production (MAR) at 3.4%. Get your $USDZAR market update from @WVenketas here:https://t.co/2hzqhPFKc2 https://t.co/IcNpRYCJul
  • $DXY slightly lower on the day as a chaotic Wall Street session comes to a close $DXY $USD https://t.co/cWEnWtCEX4
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.39% France 40: 0.27% Germany 30: 0.23% Wall Street: 0.01% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VW3XrWqAfM
  • Walking back those snap comments of support for Yellen's remarks that rates may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating. I'm not the conspiracy type, but these corrections seem to occur more frequently when the markets are down... https://t.co/v7xiIH4Bdt
  • @CVecchioFX Punjabi goat curry?
  • We are in the last half hour of the trading day and the Dow is not really living that 'buy the dip' life. $DJI 15 minute chart: https://t.co/fUEQjEnuzB
  • NZD/USD gives back the advance following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report after struggling to test the March high (0.7303). Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/wlnQkJCy5z https://t.co/noZsmwPk35
  • Fed's Bullard: - Before talk of tapering or other regulatory changes, we need to be solidly out of the pandemic - Some people's motivation to return to work is influenced by benefits
  • Fed's Bullard: - It's not a smart idea to ask low-wage workers to return - It's too early to predict significant employment growth, the pandemic isn't over yet
  • Fed's Bullard: - Some inflation, not all, is transitory - I think inflation would be 2.5% to 3% in 2021, and 2.5% in 2022 - I think we are going to see higher inflation through 2021
Silver Price Forecast: ETF Holdings Slip as XAGUSD Price Fades

Silver Price Forecast: ETF Holdings Slip as XAGUSD Price Fades

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Silver Price Forecast:

  • XAGUSD slipped roughly -3.5% on Wednesday as modest risk appetite returned to markets
  • Since the metal’s recent price peak on September 4, the total ETF holdings of silver have fallen by 18.3 million troy ounces
  • Gold prices have fallen similarly, but the metal has not witnessed the same decline in ETF ownership

Silver Price Forecast: ETF Holdings Slip as XAGUSD Price Fades

Since silver’s recent price peak on September 4, the total known ETF holdings of the metal have fallen by roughly 18.3 million troy ounces. As a percentage of total holdings, the decline in ownership is nearly 3% compared to the corresponding -8% decline in silver’s price. As I have highlighted previously, robust demand via ETFs for gold and silver had helped to buoy the price of both precious metals. In recent months, modest drawbacks in price were met with relatively steadfast demand from exchange traded funds.

Silver Holdings Slip Alongside Price

Silver Price and ETF Holdings Chart

Data source: Bloomberg

Now, however, it seems as though some of the underlying demand for silver is waning as investors look to cast the precious metal aside. Perhaps due to shifting fundamental conditions or the nearly parabolic price climb in July and August, a continued decline in ETF holdings of silver could look to exacerbate the metal’s price decline. To that end, profit-taking due to the steep ascent in price could be a likely selling catalyst if the holdings of gold remain consistent.

Gold Holdings Remain Robust

Gold Price and ETF Holdings

Data source: Bloomberg

Acting as a cheap alternative to gold, silver enjoys many of the same fundamental tailwinds as its more expensive counterpart. More specifically, gold and silver typically enjoy a boost when investors are looking to hedge against inflation or to safely park capital. Therefore, the relatively consistent holdings of gold – despite similar declines in price – could suggest the fundamental concerns that sparked the initial rotation into the precious metals remain.

Learn the Tips and Tricks of Trading the Gold - Silver Ratio

With that in mind, the recent decline in silver prices could look to continue as investors reassess the shorter-term outlook and take profit, but without a simultaneous decline in gold holdings, the longer-term picture may remain constructive for XAGUSD.

Silver Price Chart (XAGUSD): Daily Time Frame (October 2015 – September 2019)

SIlver Daily Price Chart

Created with TradingView

With that in mind, traders should look to technical levels for guidance as the longer- and shorter-term themes jockey for control over price. In the event of continued pressure, support could materialize around $17.5 – the midpoint of two Fibonacci sequences. Serious selling could see the metal look to subsequent support around $16.60 where two more Fibonacci levels reside.

How to Trade Silver: Top Silver Trading Strategies

On the other hand, barriers to bullish price swings may reside around $18.30 and the recent price-peak in the $19.50 area. For a deeper look at the ETF holdings of both silver and gold, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Forecasts for the Week

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES