News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/p9Pkkbo2zf
  • The docket thins out over the coming week, but there are a few serious market highlights that can make for some interesting opportunities in the week ahead. $GBPUSD has the technical chops and fundamental confluence (US CPI, UK GDP, etc) https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/BMUQ0xVOge
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfIZNKr https://t.co/nBfJcptUDK
  • Dogecoin continues to trade higher with explosive energy, attesting to the cryptocurrency's new clout. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum sink. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/ohw714KqB2 https://t.co/EWxKoQykv1
  • Natural gas prices moved higher, capturing a long-term trendline that could support the heating commodity's price in the coming weeks as colder temps support fundamental side. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/tGUDJE9hn0 https://t.co/nROsrJa1sv
  • The Euro may fall against the US Dollar amid a historically strong month for the Greenback and relative bond yield spreads. EUR/USD appears to be eyeing bearish technical warning signs. Get your $EURUSD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/njTDk8Ehoi https://t.co/w4II63utz1
  • The US Dollar is still struggling against most ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD remains downside-focused despite recent gains. USD/THB is eyeing a triangle. USD/IDR and USD/PHP may point lower. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6Nvvmz8h6d https://t.co/TYsfOXHrro
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD May Rise on Dovish Fed Speak After Huge NFP Miss #AUD $AUDUSD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/05/07/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-May-Rise-on-Dovish-Fed-Speak-After-Huge-NFP-Miss.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/L9pERwjTqh
  • Bitcoin is struggling to extend April’s bounce while Ethereum and Litecoin are exhibiting signs of momentum exhaustion. What are key technical levels to watch for ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PnZId4xOh2 https://t.co/ZTYoxdBxLl
  • The Indian Rupee has been rising despite a surge in local Covid cases, owing to rising yields amid a temporary flood of US Dollars into the banking system. INR remains at risk, eyeing CPI data. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6r7hahVtx4 https://t.co/a0z46Q0Mn4
Dow Jones September Forecast: Expect a Return of Volume and Volatility

Dow Jones September Forecast: Expect a Return of Volume and Volatility

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Dow Jones Forecast:

  • Since 1980, the average monthly return for the Dow Jones in September stands at -0.75%
  • As traders return to their desks and volume expands, upcoming moves could see greater follow-through evidenced by historical returns in the fall months
  • Interested in shorter-term forecasts? Check out the weekly technical forecast for the Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 and CAC 40.

Dow Jones September Forecast: Expect a Return of Volume and Volatility

As traders return to their desks after the long Labor Day weekend, volume and volatility may return in tandem. Although this past August enjoyed an abundance of volatility, historical performance suggests the conditions were anomalous and not akin to historical summer months on average. Fundamental developments and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty were largely to blame and few of those themes have been resolved come September. Consequently, trading conditions may see market participants express greater conviction regardless of direction.

dow jones forecast chart

That said, the Dow Jones may have a difficult path ahead despite the greater liquidity behind it. Historical performance since 1980 reveals that September is bearish on average for the Industrial Average with an average monthly return of -0.75%. Last month’s -1.7% return has also pushed August into negative territory on an average monthly basis, but not to the degree of September. While September is typically followed by strong performances in the final three months of the year, the DJIA’s spike in volume is equally important and is usually accompanied by an increase in volatility.

VIX chart

Chart prepared by John Kicklighter

Looking to the chart above, historical data reveals August and September are typically the months in which the VIX begins its ascent before topping out in October alongside volume. To be sure, the fundamental themes the market had to weather in August are far from resolved as the final third of the year begins. In fact, it could be argued the stakes are higher with an impending Brexit deadline and expanded US-China trade war.

To that end, US and Chinese officials have expressed an inability to agree on a date for their upcoming meeting. The lack of consensus on seemingly the simplest of matters in the process does not inspire confidence for eventual negotiations regarding economic practices that could have global and long-lasting effects – but markets remain optimistic.

If that optimism begins to fade – as it often has in the past – the increased volume could see the Dow Jones elicit deeper moves and break its recent range from 25,337 to 26,515. The eventual breakout, whether higher or lower, will be closely aligned with the ongoing trade war, looming recession risk and Federal Reserve rate cut bets. Until a concrete development is delivered on one of these themes, traders may be hesitant to place their bets. However, once such spark arrives, the corresponding move will enjoy greater potential to be met with widespread conviction given the trading conditions.

As it stands, August’s negative return is a testament to the concern amongst traders for the future. With little tangible progress, the headwinds may continue to pressure the Dow Jones in the near-future. While the market awaits a fundamental catalyst, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and technical analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:US-China Trade War: The Economies Most at Risk From US Tariffs

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES