News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.18% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.22% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/5ozgmiSfq9
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Retail Sales YoY (SEP) due at 07:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 2.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-30
  • 🇩🇪 Retail Sales YoY (SEP) Actual: 6.5% Expected: 6.6% Previous: 3.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-30
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.96% France 40: -1.60% Germany 30: -1.67% Wall Street: -1.91% US 500: -2.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MsKJpAWuai
  • 🇬🇧 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (OCT) Actual: 5.8% Expected: 5.2% Previous: 5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-30
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (OCT) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Actual: 5.8% Expected: 5.2% Previous: 5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-30
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (OCT) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.2% Previous: 5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-30
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Retail Sales YoY (SEP) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 6.6% Previous: 3.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-30
  • IBEX 35, CAC 40 In Jeopardy Amid Stringent Covid-19 Restrictions - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/10/30/IBEX-35-CAC-40-In-Jeopardy-Amid-Stringent-Covid-19-Restrictions--.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #IBEX35 #CAC40 #FRA40 #ESP35 #coronavirus https://t.co/A2WogrvWSZ
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/Pz3sPAXBZB
Crude Oil Prices Aim Lower Amid Trade War, Recession Fears

Crude Oil Prices Aim Lower Amid Trade War, Recession Fears

2019-08-31 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Crude Oil 2 Hour Weekly Chart

CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • Crude oil prices remain anchored to broad-based market mood swings
  • OPEC+ output scheme and geopolitical jitters unable to sustain gains
  • Incoming economic data, central bank commentary to apply pressure

Get our free guide to help build confidence in your crude oil trading strategy!

Crude oil prices remain anchored to broad-based sentiment prevailing on global financial markets. This bodes decidedly ill for the cycle-sensitive commodity as US-China trade war escalation disrupts supply chains vital to worldwide economic activity and an inverted yield curve raises the specter of recession.

Tellingly, prolonging an OPEC-led coordinated output cut scheme has failed to break the medium-term downtrend. Worries about supply disruption in the critical Strait of Hormuz amid sporadic sparring between the US and Iran have likewise failed to generate lasting gains.

CRUDE OIL PRICES BIASED LOWER AMID TRADE WAR, RECESSION FEARS

The week ahead is replete with opportunities to remind investors of the gathering headwinds. Policy announcements from the RBA and the Bank of Canada will almost certainly bemoan slowing growth, singling out trade tensions as a particularly insidious catalyst.

On the data front, PMI and ISM surveys will probably make for grim reading. They will offer between them a timely view of economic activity trends in China, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. Australian GDP data is also due, with baseline forecasts envisioning a slowdown.

Finally, the closely-watched US jobs report is expected to show hiring picked up while the unemployment rate held steady near 50-year lows in August. Somewhat counterintuitively, such news is likely to hurt sentiment against the current backdrop in that it might discourage aggressive Fed stimulus expansion.

In all, this seems to mean that crude oil’s grinding four-month downtrend is likely to continue. Bursts of upward momentum may emerge as markets react to any Tweetstorms from Washington and the inevitable retorts to them from Beijing or Tehran, but such spikes have yet to find follow-through.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Battered Amid Market Turmoil Faces RBA and GDP

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES