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Fed Leaves Rates, QE Unchanged, FOMC Sees 2 Rate Hikes in 2023

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  • $Gold trying to hold this support, 's1' from the article earlier today $GC $GLD https://t.co/1lQ3c7CPkE https://t.co/NjIk6UPYlN
  • Fed's Powell: - The economy is on the mend after a long period of decline - We will keep a close eye on inflation to make sure our assumptions are correct
  • DAX is making its way higher, but the grinding wedge behavior is concerning CAC has been extremely impressive, but a dip could be around the bend. Get your #DAX market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/rD3sYiWGk4 https://t.co/8PLSIwLlAl
  • Fed's Powell: - The problem we have with inflation has nothing to do with the central banking system - We will taper when we feel the economy has achieved substantial further progress
  • trendline dance $ES $SPX looks almost too clean with scope. almost 'easy' with enough hindsight. reality is this was a messy scenario and the short-term chart shows that (img 2) ES +36 as of now https://t.co/2qhaz0w6mB https://t.co/qIRIZ9DJ7B
  • Fed's Powell: - There is nothing in the framework that prevents us from achieving our objectives - We are not in a "behind the curve" scenario
  • Fed's Powell: - A higher neutral rate would allow for further rate cuts - We can't estimate the neutral rate with great precision
  • Fed's Powell: - The fundamental factors that have weighed on inflation for the past quarter-century remain unchanged - If inflation rises to a degree or persists long enough, we will be prepared to use tools to counter it
  • one of the few trends that hasn't yet turned around - the $USD, still pressing higher $DXY https://t.co/iEW04U3dVE https://t.co/siOzTtNk2H
  • Fed's Powell: - 2022 will be a really good year, with substantial job development as a result of growth - Forecasts show that next year will be a fantastic year
Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Curbed by Trump's Tariffs, Growth Fears

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Curbed by Trump's Tariffs, Growth Fears

Nick Cawley, Strategist
Crude Oil Price Chart

Crude Oil Price Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

Q3 2019 Oil Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Oil Will Struggle Against an Unfriendly Backdrop

Oil’s mini-revival came to a shuddering halt Thursday after US President Donald Trump ramped up the

trade dispute with China by announcing that he will impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese

imports on top of the 25% tariff already in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods. China has already

said that it would retaliate, further adding to the trade war that is damaging global growth prospects.

And China may not be the only one in Trump’s crosshairs with the President expected to make an announcement later today regarding trade with the European Union with tariffs on European (German) auto-makers mooted. This would come at a bad time for the EU with recent data showing the economy continuing to slow down, with the manufacturing sector the worst affected. President Trump would have seen today’s trade balance figures (-$55.2b a five-month wide) as a vindication of his tough protectionist policy. Next week’s calendar has trade balance figures from both China (Thursday) and Germany (Friday) which may see further Trump tweets hit the screen.

Markets Brace for Trump Announcement

Against this harsh background, oil is unlikely to push significantly higher in the near-term. While Thursday plunge is being partially trimmed, the price of oil will struggle to move higher in the short- and medium-term with strong resistance between $58.80/bbl. and $61.00/bbl.

US Crude Oil Daily Chart (October 2018 – July 26, 2019)

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Curbed by Trump's Tariffs, Growth Fears

The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 66.9% net-long US Crude Oil, a bearish contrarian bias. However daily and weekly changes give us a stronger bearish US Crude Oil bias.

Surprising Crude Oil Facts Every Trader Should Know

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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