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Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Curbed by Trump's Tariffs, Growth Fears

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Curbed by Trump's Tariffs, Growth Fears

2019-08-03 05:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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Crude Oil Price Chart

Crude Oil Price Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

Q3 2019 Oil Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Oil Will Struggle Against an Unfriendly Backdrop

Oil’s mini-revival came to a shuddering halt Thursday after US President Donald Trump ramped up the

trade dispute with China by announcing that he will impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese

imports on top of the 25% tariff already in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods. China has already

said that it would retaliate, further adding to the trade war that is damaging global growth prospects.

And China may not be the only one in Trump’s crosshairs with the President expected to make an announcement later today regarding trade with the European Union with tariffs on European (German) auto-makers mooted. This would come at a bad time for the EU with recent data showing the economy continuing to slow down, with the manufacturing sector the worst affected. President Trump would have seen today’s trade balance figures (-$55.2b a five-month wide) as a vindication of his tough protectionist policy. Next week’s calendar has trade balance figures from both China (Thursday) and Germany (Friday) which may see further Trump tweets hit the screen.

Markets Brace for Trump Announcement

Against this harsh background, oil is unlikely to push significantly higher in the near-term. While Thursday plunge is being partially trimmed, the price of oil will struggle to move higher in the short- and medium-term with strong resistance between $58.80/bbl. and $61.00/bbl.

US Crude Oil Daily Chart (October 2018 – July 26, 2019)

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Curbed by Trump's Tariffs, Growth Fears

The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 66.9% net-long US Crude Oil, a bearish contrarian bias. However daily and weekly changes give us a stronger bearish US Crude Oil bias.

Surprising Crude Oil Facts Every Trader Should Know

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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