We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.47% France 40: 0.44% Germany 30: 0.38% US 500: -0.16% Wall Street: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/4oDLGEMu1T
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.06%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 71.21%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/m74wuZZKeH
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.42% Gold: -0.03% Oil - US Crude: -0.83% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4cYiwWIL4E
  • What financial job opportunity in which location makes the cut for you? Find out! https://t.co/rrCpMM85Rt https://t.co/4rS0V6FiEm
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.33% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.00% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GOEvZ8H1yT
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.33% Germany 30: 0.31% FTSE 100: 0.29% US 500: -0.23% Wall Street: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0oIElrc66l
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/afobcd9GRa https://t.co/bn3jPwlxks
  • Arizona virus cases rise 5.1% vs prior 4.7% 7-day average - BBG
  • The US Dollar is entering the third quarter with its safe haven status tested by rising COVID cases and trade pressures. What are the key USD catalysts in these opening weeks of July? Download the 3Q guide from @JohnKicklighter to find out here: https://t.co/z3dYpQYiJa https://t.co/Eh2Pd9YZq7
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.16% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/xEQQA9wfDe
Crude Oil Price: Will Global Growth Fears Overwhelm OPEC?

Crude Oil Price: Will Global Growth Fears Overwhelm OPEC?

Share:

WILL SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH & TRADE WARS DRAG CRUDE OIL PRICES?

Since Q2, oil prices have fallen a little over seven percent, considerably less than the 30-plus percent climb they experienced at the beginning of the year. Rising concerns about the pace of global economic growth is pressuring WTI as inventories bulge while many central banks are halting – and in some cases entirely reversing – monetary policy normalization and their rate hike cycles hoping to shore up weakening fundamentals.

Decelerating GDP growth out of powerhouse economies like China, the EU and US may continue to weigh on oil demand and prices. In Europe, ECB policymakers have recently concluded a symposium in Sintra, Portugal where central bank President Mario Draghi alluded to possible future rates cuts and the re-introduction of QE. Slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures in Europe have been lagging while expectations for price growth remain unfavorable.

Demand for oil which mirrors slowing GDP growth out of these economies has created a supply imbalance and looks to keep crude oil prices under pressure. Oil price weakness threatens to be exacerbated by US Department of Energy (DOE) reports detailing that total crude production is increasing along with inventories. Additionally, the number of oil rigs in use has fallen and demonstrates that production efficiency is increasing. If US crude oil producers decide to open up the spigot and increase operational capacity, crude oil prices may plummet further.

OIL PRICE CHART VOLATILITY THREATENS TO DRAG CRUDE LOWER

Oil

With crude being strong-armed by both bullish and bearish headwinds, oil price volatility (measured by Cboe’s OVX Crude Oil Volatility Index, shown inverted) risks rising which possibly suggest weakness in WTI ahead due to the generally strong negative relationship between the two assets. The daily chart also reveals that an impending death cross of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs threatens to keep crude oil prices subdued.

If market sentiment sours at technical resistance near the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level, confluence around $54.00 per barrel and the 50.0 percent retracement of crude’s year-to-date trading range has potential to keep oil prices bid. Moreover, forthcoming weakness in crude is perhaps hinted at by fading momentum shown by the downtrend in oil’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Crude oil might sink toward support at the $52.00 level if the longer-term bullish uptrend from the December 2018 low fails to bolster prices. Conversely, upside could target $62.00 and the 78.6 percent Fib before eyeing the $66.00 per barrel price level again.

OIL TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin and Rich Dvorak, Junior Analysts for DailyFX.com

Connect with @ZabelinDimitri and @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.