News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Evr5KgUjVo
  • $GBPUSD corrects from stretched valuations, however, positioning clear is likely to entice dip-buyers. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/sfFdBx9pN6 https://t.co/j6nnry65SW
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/oQrOpYINOj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/LSVPlus0vv
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/rPd6B5KzuI
  • Time-cycle analysis suggests that the Japanese Yen could slide significantly lower against its major counterparts. Key levels for AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/WPq4Z9zzEw https://t.co/VzVLrBbL9q
  • The Australian Dollar looks poised to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, it may lose ground to the New Zealand Dollar. Key levels for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/cuxRxl5WaF https://t.co/pujrmqSxV7
  • Has anyone explained the risk of inflation on the markets in terms of tendies?
  • The US Dollar is trying to break higher versus ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah are under pressure. Will follow-through last? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JOWG9q01q0 https://t.co/j2ICxgrLa3
  • The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar may continue outperforming its major counterparts in the coming weeks. USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD key levels to watch. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/9bkVXQuP5C https://t.co/cLNEG36mZ8
NOK Eyes Crude Oil Prices, Norges Bank and FOMC Rate Decisions

NOK Eyes Crude Oil Prices, Norges Bank and FOMC Rate Decisions

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

  • Crude oil prices eyeing FOMC rate decision
  • NOK focusing on Norges Bank, global growth
  • SEK eyes key econ data as financial risks grow

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

NORWEGIAN KRONE EXPECTED TO BE MOST VOLATILE G10 CURRENCY

Chart Showing Implied Volatility

FOMC RATE DECISION: CRUDE OIL, S&P 500 OUTLOOK

The Norwegian Krone will be closely eyeing how crude oil prices react to the FOMC rate decision. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 17 percent probability of a cut, though this jumps to a staggering 85 percent expectation for the July meeting. Market participants will be eagerly waiting for commentary from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and will be keenly tuning in to pick up on any subtle hints on his outlook for policy.

US data has been broadly underperforming relative to economists’ expectations with the most recent US CPI publications falling in line with this trend. The Fed’s neutrality may be offset by the underwhelming data, especially after Powell said that the temporary lull in inflation was “transitory”. Meaning, if price growth shows adequate momentum, the possibility of a hike could increase.

Commentary from officials will be key, especially since the Fed is largely expected to hold rates. A more dovish outlook could help lift equities on the prospect of cheaper credit at the expense of the US Dollar. A pessimistic outlook could also trigger the Greenback’s attraction as an anti-risk asset and send investors flocking to US Treasuries if the outlook for growth is significantly more sour than before.

As outlined in my weekly forecast, crude oil is very sensitive to changes in global sentiment. It frequently moves in tandem with the S&P 500 and may end up mirroring the index’s reaction to the Fed’s commentary. However, it is important to remember: correlation does not equal causation.

NORGES BANK RATE DECISION

Given the central bank’s hawkish disposition at previous meetings, the Norges Bank will likely raise rates this week, though their outlook for future hikes may be more cautious now than before. As a petroleum-based economy with a strong reliance on European demand, waning growth out of the EU along with overall global deceleration is expected to make an appearance in official commentary and as a reason for a possible delay.

Apart from the rate decision, the Norwegian Krone will be eyeing external event risks as a catalyst for price movement. Rising geopolitical concerns out of Iran may buoy crude oil prices on the basis of supply shock fears and could end up carrying NOK with it. However, the long-term outlook for both suggests prevailing risk aversion will push these cycle-sensitive assets lower while the anti-risk US Dollar will emerge triumphant.

CRUDE OIL PRICES NOKSEK, OBX INDEX – Daily Chart

Chart Showing OBX, Crude Oil Prices, NOKSEK

SWEDEN: IS A FINANCIAL CRISIS LYING DORMANT?

The Swedish Krona will also be eyeing similar external event risk – e.g. trade wars and the FOMC – though local economic data may capture SEK’s attention as well. A slew of publications will be released on June 19, with expectations that manufacturing confidence will show weakness along with sentiment surveys. Local housing data may also garner more attention in light of rising concerns about systemic financial risks.

Chart Showing Rising Household Debt in Sweden

Local unemployment data will also be a key indicator to monitor along with a speech by Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden. The central bank has grown increasingly frustrated that inflation as it continues to remain below target while rates continue to swim in negative territory against the backdrop of a slowing global economy. A bigger concern now is if a crisis comes, how will the central bank counter the downturn?

SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES