News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Silver prices have struggled to set support over the past week, but today’s move is encouraging for Silver bulls and there may be scope for topside continuation. Get your $XAG market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/IXGwt7iWOY https://t.co/oGfeq9BhUx
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.91% Gold: 1.18% Oil - US Crude: 0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DguhEbR3xk
  • Mnuchin and Pelosi plan to continue talks on stimulus later today - BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.36%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 64.60%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/1hXd5NIVwS
  • $SPX battling it out at resistance. same zone that was in-play mid-August, and was also the prior ath set in Feb $ES $SPY https://t.co/lgu4PPk1cK
  • 🇧🇷 Balance of Trade (SEP) Actual: $6.2B Expected: $7.1B Previous: $6.6B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-01
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.43% Germany 30: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.00% France 40: -0.03% FTSE 100: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/RJRCefPXqH
  • Check out the @DailyFX Trader Education Center for detailed insight on how to trade pennant chart patterns plus more found at the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/education/technical-analysis-chart-patterns/pennant-pattern.html/?ref-author=Dvorak
  • $AAL $UAL | Big moves potentially ahead by major US airliners, which could lead the way so to speak in terms of where the broader market heads next. These two companies hinge largely on stimulus talks. United and American Airlines coiled into pennant formations. #Stocks #Trading https://t.co/7lJXEokJ5o
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Balance of Trade (SEP) due at 18:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $7.1B Previous: $6.6B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-01
Crude Oil Prices Pushing USD/NOK Down - USD/SEK Faces Resistance

Crude Oil Prices Pushing USD/NOK Down - USD/SEK Faces Resistance

2019-04-23 06:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

  • Are crude oil prices causing USDNOK to re-test support?
  • USDSEK struggling to break through 9.3110 resistance
  • Riksbank to be key catalyst for breaking USDSEK range?

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

USD/SEK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

As forecasted in last week’s technical outlook, USD/SEK has traded in a new range between 9.2273-9.3110. Even after Sweden’s dismal unemployment data was released, the pair spiked but closed just below the upper bound. The lack of follow-through signals a lack of confidence in the pair’s ability to trade above 9.3110 consistently and to use it as a new floor should it give way.

USDSEK – Daily Chart

USDSEK Price Chart

However, despite the lack of follow-through, for the past few days the pair has been trading on the cusp of the upper lip, signaling that perhaps traders are eager to try again to breaking above it again It is worth noting that the pair has repeatedly tested and broken through the upper bound, though it ultimately always retreated.

The biggest jump was on March 7 when the ECB announced its rate decision and was followed by a dismal outlook that sent Nordic currencies down and pushed USDSEK to a 17-year high. The next potential event risk that could trigger such a jump is the upcoming Riksbank rate decision and commentary on April 25. Depending on the outcome, it could send the pair beyond 9.3110 and provide enough of a boost that the pair uses it as new support.

Zooming out, the pair has been trading around a three-year high since February and is still traveling along the 2018 rising support channel. The continuous climb on the steep incline suggests a bullish bias for the pair with the fundamental outlook suggesting a continuation for the current trend for the next few months and possibly till year-end.

USDSEK – Weekly Chart

USDSEK Price Chart

USD/NOK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/NOK is once again trading around the lower bound of the upward-sloping March 2018 support (red parallel lines). The flirtation is being prompted by rising crude oil prices, particularly following yesterday’s decision by the US to discontinue Iranian oil importing waivers. The oil-linked Norwegian Krone rose on the news, promptly pushing USD/NOK lower.

USD/NOK – Daily Chart

USDNOK Price Chart

What’s telling is despite the rise in crude oil prices to their highest point since November 2019 – giving further impetus for the Norges Bank to raise rates again in June – USD/NOK continues to trade higher. The upward climb suggests an underlying bullish outlook for the pair despite the gains made in oil. A break below the 1-year support with follow would signal a critical reversal for the pair.

Coming up next is the descending resistance (red line). Since March 8, the pair has traded below it, though given the choice between breaking below support or breaking through resistance, the overall trajectory suggests a higher probability of the latter. Were the pair to break below support with confirmation, traders with long positions might find themselves covering their positions amid the reversal.

USD/NOK – Daily Chart

USDNOK Price Chart

KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES