We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.39% Gold: 0.23% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/iAnM8l2y2N
  • $USD: US Dollar Outlook Hinges on FOMC Guidance, Fed Balance Sheet Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2019/12/10/us-dollar-outlook-hinges-on-fomc-guidance-fed-balance-sheet.html -via @DailyFX https://t.co/1kDzd3IcPY
  • $CAD $MXN https://t.co/JtihyAuAhY
  • Senator Mcconnell says the Senate will not finish the USMCA before 2020 $SPX $DXY $CAD $MXN -BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.16%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.96%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PYu9xhQXLN
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% France 40: 0.09% US 500: -0.01% Wall Street: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/8jftlGtYTv
  • Here is my scenario table for the #FOMC rate decision tomorrow. Will be covering it live if you want to come and join (starting 15mins before the decision): https://t.co/d6QBYyVd9N https://t.co/zZzdCwXMFa
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -2.00% #BITCOINCASH -1.14% #ETHEREUM -1.87% #RIPPLE -1.34% #LITECOIN -1.23%
  • RT @CVecchioFX: A question I frequently get asked these days is, "Is it realistic to believe that the US Dollar can lose its role in the gl…
  • LIVE NOW: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=1338844901231735299&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
Oil Price Forecast: Crude Could Crumble if Growth Concerns Catch Fire Again

Oil Price Forecast: Crude Could Crumble if Growth Concerns Catch Fire Again

2019-04-13 04:00:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:
Oil

CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST – TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil has climbed nearly 40 percent so far this year in response OPEC slashing production to restore supply and demand imbalances with further cuts still on the table
  • Downward revisions to global economic growth forecasts continue to mount, however, which threatens bullish market sentiment and demand for crude oil
  • Take a look at this article on How to Trade Crude Oil or check out these Top Crude Oil Facts to expand your trading knowledge
  • Download the DailyFX Q2 Oil Forecast for our comprehensive outlook

Looking for a technical perspective on Crude Oil? Check out the Weekly Crude Technical Forecast.

Crude oil continued its ascent this past week with prices gaining another 0.8 percent. Turmoil in Libya and ongoing tension in Venezuela likely weighed positively on crude seeing that the two countries are major oil exporters. Conflict between the US and Iran could have also helped boost oil prices considering the risk of President Trump extending Iranian restrictions.

CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 28, 2018 TO APRIL 12, 2019)

Oil Chart

The latest IEA report indicated a hefty drop in oil inventories over February which is likely another factor contributing to the climb in oil prices. Yet, majority of the aforementioned information is backward-looking or already baked into current prices.

On a less-brighter note, the World Trade Organization recently slashed its estimates for 2019 economic growth by a staggering 1.1 percent. Concerns over a further-deteriorating economy were subsequently echoed by the International Monetary Fund in its updated World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Reports which struck a cautionary tone and cut GDP growth expectations from 3.5 percent to 3.3 percent.

Although, these developments regarding slower global growth seem to have gone unnoticed by risk assets and the oil market – eerily as it did at the end of 2018 prior to the widespread selloff. Moreover, news out that Russia has shied away from committing to extend oil production cuts along with OPEC could also weigh adversely on crude prices if this risk materializes.

That being said, the risk-reward proposition for oil bulls has grown increasingly less attractive with crude now eclipsing $63/bbl. Crude oil outlook remains neutral, however, due to upcoming seasonality effects that typically boosts oil prices in addition to uncertainty surrounding further OPEC supply cuts.

TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Fundemental Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Bearish on RBA. AUDUSD Eyes China Q1 GDP

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.