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  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Retail Sales MoM Final (JUN) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Expected: -1.8% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
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  • Strong jobs report lifts $NZD - Money markets pricing in a 93% probability of a 25bps hike at the August meeting (previously 77%) - Over the forecast horizon, the RBNZ had projected (in the May MPS) the unemployment rate to gradually fall to 4.3% https://t.co/G5Ejzl2H6L
  • #NZDUSD cautiously higher after solid New Zealand jobs report Unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.7% prior (vs 4.4% anticipated) Job gains were at 1.7% y/y vs 1.2% expected Data seems to be supporting the case for a less-dovish #RBNZ given the cease to QE recently https://t.co/XmzhuLXh1H
Oil Q2 Forecast: How Will Crude Oil Prices Budge Between Weak Growth, Undersupply?

Oil Q2 Forecast: How Will Crude Oil Prices Budge Between Weak Growth, Undersupply?

Tyler Yell, CMT, Dimitri Zabelin,

Since the start of the year, crude oil prices have enjoyed an almost 30 percent increase but have still not recovered from the 40 percent drop in Q4 2018. Increasing concerns about weakening global growth – especially out of powerhouse economies such as China and the US – may undercut the sentiment-linked commodity’s upside momentum if underlying demand for it is eroded.

However, crude oil prices may receive a boon from politically-based factors. The most recent OPEC+ meeting that was supposed to take place in April was cancelled, with investors now waiting for the June session. Officials are expected to be in support of deep cuts. The US is also reimposing sanctions against Iran, which may undercut supply and boost prices.

Crude Oil Price Chart

See the complete Q2’19 Oil Forecast as well as outlook for other major currencies, equities, and gold.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT and Dimitri Zabelin, Analysts for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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