News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.31%) S&P 500 (+0.15%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.19%) [delayed] -BBG
  • No matter where you look, the Euro is under a great deal of technical pressure: versus the commodity currencies (EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD) or even against the Nordic currencies (EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK). Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/UJvFdVbrk6 https://t.co/lJGEuR5TIE
  • RT @FxWestwater: $AUDUSD Aims to Retake Key Level as Markets Digest US Covid Stimulus News Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/03/08/AUDUSD-Aims-to-Retake-Key-Level-as-Markets-Digest-US-Covid-Stimulus-News.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/eYwb…
  • This seems likely to reflect the near-certain passing of the US$1.9 trillion stimulus top-up in the US https://t.co/lmIuNpLmV6
  • Risk-on tone seemingly prevailing in early Asia-Pacific trade. US stock index futures up with commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD, NOK), crude oil, gold. Anti-risk USD, JPY and CHF down. https://t.co/nJgxWHCGCa
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/brgbPlNTIl
  • WTI crude oil prices surpassed the 200% Fibonacci extension level of US$ 66.65 after Saudi Arabia said a storage tank in the Ras Tanura export terminal was attached by a drone on Sunday. Brent price breached US$ 70 mark for the first time since January 2020. https://t.co/hB39eHZLVw
  • Crude oil will likely extend its bull run after one of the most protected oil facilities in the world came under attack on Sunday - BBG
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX - https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H Mid-Week Market Check Up with IG on Wednesday at 9:30am EST - https://t.co/8SFBJxNZrA
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/1mnOXUuBpt https://t.co/6BhlgjWVYw
ASEAN FX at Risk to US Recession Fears & Sentiment on Brexit, ECB

ASEAN FX at Risk to US Recession Fears & Sentiment on Brexit, ECB

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

ASEAN Fundamental Outlook

  • A more dovish Fed sunk US Dollar, lifting ASEAN currencies
  • Rising concerns about a recession may bolster the Greenback
  • Declines in USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP may not last

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

US Dollar and ASEAN FX Recap

Most ASEAN currencies appreciated against the US dollar this past week, owing to a surprisingly more-dovish-than-expected Fed rate decision. In addition, sentiment generally recovered throughout most the week heading into the FOMC. Most notably, the S&P 500 at one point breached critical resistance before turning back lower on Friday.

USD/IDR saw most of its decline in pre-FOMC trade, with losses pausing after the Bank of Indonesia rate decision afterwards. While benchmark lending rates were left unchanged, the central bank said that it will raise loan-to-funding ratio reserve requirements as it takes on accommodative policies to push for domestic demand. After hiking rates aggressively last year, this was seen as a step away from monetary tightening.

There was a slightly different story from the Philippine central bank last week. Heading into it, USD/PHP rose on more dovish prospects after newly-appointed Governor Benjamin Diokno alluded to cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR). However, the Philippine Peso then regained ground after there were no mentions of cutting RRR in the statement, disappointing some dovish bets. USD/SGD was little change by the weekend.

ASEAN FX vs. US Dollar

Domestic ASEAN FX Economic Events and Risks

The regional ASEAN economic docket thins out in the week ahead following two central bank rate decisions. Singapore will be releasing February inflation and industrial production data. Regardless, USD/SGDtends to have a close relationship with DXY and its movement in the medium-term may be dictated by the Greenback. For risk trends, do keep an eye on Chinese industrial profits on Wednesday.

External ASEAN FX Event Risk

Speaking of sentiment, ASEAN currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit could be left vulnerable if global equities turn lower ahead. Lately, there have been rising concerns about a recession in the world’s-largest economy. Looking at the chart below, a closely watched section of the US yield curve, the gap between 3-month and 10-year government bond yields, flipped negative for the first time since 2007.

US Recession Concerns

ASEAN FX at Risk to US Recession Fears & Sentiment on Brexit, ECB

Chart Created in TradingView

In times of risk aversion, the highly-liquid US Dollar can benefit from haven demand. With that in mind, attention turns to a slew of important domestic data. Next week offers US consumer confidence, GDP and PCE core (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation). Lately, economic data has been tending to underperform relative to economists’ expectations. If more of the same fuels risk aversion, USD may rise.

As such, sentiment-linked ASEAN FX may succumb to selling pressure in such circumstances. Another risk for stocks, a wildcard perhaps, is what could happen if UK Prime Minister Theresa May fails to pass her Brexit deal in Parliament for a third time. This may increase the odds of a ‘no-deal’ divorce unless the nation participates in EU parliamentary elections.

There will also be a slew of European Central Bank speakers in the week ahead offering commentary in the aftermath of a more-dovish ECB rate decision. Rhetoric that echoes and builds on a more pessimistic outlook could scare investors. As such, treat losses in USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/MYR with caution.

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on

Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES