News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.01%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 68.82%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HWcth7b6kv
  • WH Press Sec. Psaki: - More work remains on infrastructure after meeting - Today or tomorrow, a White House team will meet with Senators from both parties
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% Germany 30: -0.11% France 40: -0.19% FTSE 100: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/HdfL6Ct6sE
  • McKesson said to explore sale of European, UK businesses -BBG $MCK $EURUSD $GBPUSD
  • EUR/GBP continues to trade towards the bottom of the trading range. Sentiment remains ‘mixed’ after near term decline in long positioning. Get your market updates from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/i7uESnbkBE https://t.co/rdqrIAUnuG
  • @JohnKicklighter At the very least, it’s providing extra entertainment for us market junkies plugged into #Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony. Perhaps serving as a coping mechanism for HODL-ers as well. $BTCUSD #Bitcoin
  • U.K.-EU TRUCE LIKELY IN N.IRELAND TRADE DISPUTE, OFFICIALS SAY - BBG
  • Fed's Powell: - The Fed is prepared to utilize all of its tools to maintain inflation at or below 2% - It is extremely unlikely that inflation will be as high as it was in the 1970's
  • Fed's Powell: - Enhanced unemployment benefits may be a factor limiting job growth - In the fall, I believe we will see a lot more jobs being created
  • Fed's Powell: - On the employment front, we still have a long way to go - When the economy is healthier, we will focus on reducing government borrowing
US Dollar, ASEAN Currencies Eye Volatile Week Packed With Wildcards

US Dollar, ASEAN Currencies Eye Volatile Week Packed With Wildcards

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

ASEAN Fundamental Outlook

  • An improvement in sentiment left the US Dollar lower as ASEAN currencies appreciated
  • The Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit may focus more on external risks instead
  • From US economic data to the Fed and several wildcards, volatility may increase

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

This past week, ASEAN currencies generally outperformed against the US Dollar amidst an improvement in sentiment. By the end of Friday, headlines such as the Fed possibly ending its balance sheet runoff this year and progress in US-China trade talks helped push the S&P 500 to close at its highest since December 2018. Demand for the haven-linked and highly liquid US Dollar waned as DXY aimed lower. The Indonesian Rupiah was one of the best regional performers after USD/IDR fell below resistance.

USD Versus ASEAN Currencies

The week ahead contains a plethora of event risk for ASEAN currencies, both regionally and externally. Beginning with the former, the Singapore Dollar may look past a domestic inflation report as it focuses on developments that may impact the US Dollar down the road. Over the past 20 days, the rolling correlation coefficient between USD/SGD and DXY has been around +0.88 (see chart below).

USD/SGD Close Relationship to DXY

US Dollar, ASEAN Currencies Eye Volatile Week Packed With Wildcards

Chart Created in TradingView

There may be a good chance that the Indonesian Rupiah also brushes aside a softer-than-expected local inflation report. Last week, USD/IDR fell despite the Bank of Indonesia holding steady on rates and showing a lack of eagerness to hike again soon. Rather, it is focused on continuing to uphold the value of the Rupiah. It reiterated that it sees it as undervalued, undermining upside progress that the pair may make.

Chinese Manufacturing and Caixin PMIs will be closely watched for signs of economic weakness in the world’s second largest economy. Nearby neighbors such as Malaysia and the Philippines have China as one of their top 5 trading partners. Chinese economic data is still tending to underperform relative to economists’ expectations, albeit this has been by a narrowing margin since the beginning of this year.

Looking more abroad, the US Dollar has plenty of local event risk waiting for it such as 4Q GDP, PCE core and consumer confidence data. Recently, softer-than-expected retail sales and durable goods orders inspired risk aversion as frets about economic weakness spread from China and Europe and into the US. More of the same may sink equities while the haven-linked Greenback rallies.

This would pressure its ASEAN counterparts lower. A sigh of relief may come from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is scheduled to testify before Congress. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed that halting the balance sheet unwind this year seems more certain than the direction of actual interest rates. This bolstered the S&P 500 along with risk trends and may do so again if he reiterates this possibility.

A few wildcards remain on the external front: the US is expected to extend the March 1 deadline on Chinese import tariffs, President Donald Trump travels to Vietnam for another Summit with North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un and the UK’s Parliament could vote on a Brexit deal. An action-packed week may offer the US Dollar and equities more volatility, having knock-on effects on the sentiment-geared MYR and PHP too.

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES