We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
  • The $NZD is inching toward support guiding gains in the fourth quarter of 2019. A break may set the stage for long-term bearish trend resumption. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/bnlx4RJ8oV https://t.co/d60YziMYnO
  • $Gld prices are poised to mark the highest weekly-close in nearly seven-years, but the bulls aren’t in the clear yet. Here are the XAU/USD levels that matter next week. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/yeTH6HwncQ https://t.co/6sIpxTSNaX
  • Video https://t.co/PZeqhLumSR
  • The $USD rose as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso fell on coronavirus fears. What is the technical outlook for USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR and USD/PHP? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/G3GmyOe4IT https://t.co/iq7ajeP6iv
  • RT @ddubrovskyFX: The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. USD/INR…
Crude Oil Prices Risk Overbought RSI Signal Despite Record U.S. Output

Crude Oil Prices Risk Overbought RSI Signal Despite Record U.S. Output

2019-02-23 04:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:
Crude Oil Chart

Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil: Bullish

Crude Oil Talking Points

Oil remains bid even though U.S. crude production climbs to a record high in February, and recent price action keeps the topside targets on the radar as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with overbought territory.

Looking for a technical perspective on the Crude Oil? Check out the Weekly Crude Oil Technical Forecast.

It seems as though the rebalancing efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies will continue to bear fruit as crude take out the December-high ($54.55), and the ongoing adjust on the supply-side is likely to keep oil prices afloat as energy exports from Iran and Venezuela remain battered by the U.S. sanctions.

It remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will extend the six-month agreement at the next meeting in April amid the mixed rhetoric coming out of Russia, but the current environment may foster a larger correction in crude prices amid the tepid pace of growth in non-OPEC production.

EIA Chart

Fresh updates from the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) show U.S. crudeweekly field output climbing to a record 20,000K b/d in the week ending February 15 after holding steady at 11,900K b/d for the past four consecutive weeks. A further uptick in U.S. output may become a growing concern for OPEC and its allies, but so far, the figures indicate a limited threat of non-OPEC supply, with signs of stagnant U.S. supply likely to instill a constructive outlook for crude especially as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation appears to be taking shape.

At the same time, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the bullish momentum may gather pace as the indicator flirts with overbought territory, with a break above 70 raising the risk for higher oil prices as the oscillator continues to track the upward trend carried over from late-2018. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

CL1 Daily Chart

CL1 Daily Chart

Keep in mind, the broader outlook for crude remains constructive following the break of the December-high ($54.55), with a break/close above $57.40 (61.8% retracement) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement). Next region of interests comes in around $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $63.70 (38.2% retracement) followed by the overlap around $64.90 (100% expansion) to $65.90 (78.6% retracement).

However, failure to close above $57.40 (61.8% retracement) may generate a near-term pullback especially if the RSI fails to push into overbought territory, with the first region of interest coming in around $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) followed by $51.40 (50% retracement) to $52.10 (50% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar Market May be Calmer, But Watch Trade Headlines

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.