NOK, SEK Vulnerable as Europe Slows Down - FOMC Minutes in Focus
NORDIC FX, SEK, NOK – WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
- Light data week in Norway and Sweden – focus is on external factors
- Slowdown in European economic activity may impact Nordic countries
- FOMC meeting minutes in focus – may give small boost to NOK, SEK
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SWEDEN, NORWAY ECONOMIC DATA OUTLOOK
The Norwegian Krone (NOK) and Swedish Krona (SEK) this week may be more influenced by external forces – from Europe and the US – than by domestic factors. The economic data front for this week in Norway is very light, with only the Bloomberg January Economic Survey due. However, in Sweden there is local data that will may play a notable role in impacting SEK.
On January 19, a plethora of CPI data for various time measures e.g. month-on-month, year-on-year, will be released at 08:30 GMT. The following day, the Prospera Swedish Inflation Expectations Survey (commissioned by Sweden’s central bank) will be released and may move the Krona if traders see upward price momentum weakening.
Inflation data will be a key event to monitor in light of the Riksbank’s recent policy meeting, that many characterized as hawkish. If reports show inflation is weakening, it may alter the Riksbank’s monetary policy for 2019.
Looking ahead, the following week, Swedish GDP, PPI, and PMI Manufacturing data will be released. Monitoring these indicators will be very important, given that the economy has been underperforming relative to economists’ expectations and may further add pressure to adjusting the Riksbank’s policy.
For Norway, the following week, key PMI Manufacturing and unemployment data will be released that could impact NOK. The central bank may also see the data and entertain potentially postponing the intended rate hike if economic indicators show the need for a policy conducive for looser credit conditions.
POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL TRIGGERS FOR NOK, SEK
Due to the unique political economy of EU-Nordic relations, developments in Europe could disrupt the Nordic economies. Recent data out of the EU has been abysmal with Italy entering a technical recession, economically-disruptive protests have taken place in France and German growth has been slowing down more than expected.
This week, key economic data out of Germany may move NOK and SEK if the data underperforms relative to expectations. Some of reports to keep an eye on include CPI, Manufacturing PMI, and GDP – the latter of which will be particularly important given the state of the German economy. France’s and the Eurozone’s CPI data will also be released and may warrant the attention of any trader with exposure to European assets.
This week, markets will likely have a lot of their focus on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The message will likely reiterate what markets already know from the Fed’s recent announcements – which is a more dovish wait-and-see approach to policy. This may push USD/NOK and USD/SEK lower, but the pairs may recover as markets weigh the fundamental outlook.
Concerns for slower growth have been rising, and in this environment, investors may pivot away from chasing yields to instead focusing on capital preservation. Consequently, the US Dollar – as anti-risk asset – may rise, as traders re-evaluate the potential upward movement of Nordic currencies that rest on the export-driven economies. The risk and uncertainty over the US-China trade war is also a significant factor.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: USD/NOK, USD/SEK
Despite closing higher for 8 consecutive days, USD/NOK broke its streak and is now trading below a key support – or rather, now resistance – at 8.6417. In the short term, the pair may flirt with 8.5956, with a potential aim at 8.5586 if Dollar weakness persists and investors are more open to risk-taking.
USD/NOK – Daily Chart
USD/SEK recently breached a key resistance at 9.2027 which may have triggered a bullish push that sent the pair to almost as high as 9.3110. The long candle following the breakthrough on February 6 could be interpreted as a signal that investors were ready to start going-long with greater confidence.
USD/SEK – Daily Chart
Despite losing some steam – as expected – the pair remain at their highest point since December of 2016. The fundamental outlook suggests that underlying momentum for the pair may grow as 2019 develops and could push the pair beyond the 2016 high of 9.4066.
USD/SEK – Daily Chart
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SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES
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--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.