We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
  • We were almost there, but the $SPX fell short of a >1.0% daily change. That raises the tally to 39 consecutive trading days without a climb or fall of even a moderate measure https://t.co/ibt82dBGmh
  • En español: El oro tropieza y se precipita en caída libre. ¿Qué explica las pérdidas del metal dorado y la alta volatilidad en los mercados financieros? #XAUUSD #trading $gold https://t.co/Hdsd0z1qih https://t.co/WKnGaABVS8
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.30% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.38% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lrSRyCHLjw
  • Martin Guzman named as Argentina's new Minister of Economy $USDARS
  • YouGov poll finds 52% for Johnson winning debate vs 48% for Corbyn $GBPUSD
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.15% Gold: -1.07% Silver: -2.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MUWxfLEsGn
Dow Jones Looks to Trade Wars, DAX and Nikkei to GDP Data

Dow Jones Looks to Trade Wars, DAX and Nikkei to GDP Data

2019-02-10 09:00:00
Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst
Share:
SP500

Stock MarketTalking Points:

  • US and China trade officials are slated to meet in Beijing on February 14th and 15th
  • The Japanese Nikkei awaits GDP data scheduled for release on Wednesday
  • The German DAX will look to avoid a technical recession with GDP data due Thursday

Looking for a technical perspective on Equities? Check out the Weekly EquityTechnical Forecast.

Dow Jones Fundamental Outlook

Forecast: Mixed

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and its counterpart in that of the S&P 500 will take their cues largely from non-scheduled data next week. As earnings season winds down, sentiment and price action will turn once again to the larger overarching themes that equities have faced for months.

Think the stock market is headed for a crash? Learn some bear market trading strategies and techniques.

Trade wars remain the paramount concern with US and Chinese officials scheduled to meet in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. The talks are critically important for progress as the 90-day deadline approaches expiration on March 1st. Further, President Donald Trump confirmed a report that he will not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the deadline. The lack of a face-to-face meeting between the two Presidents places increased pressure on trade officials from both sides.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January 2018 – February 2019) (Chart 1)

Dow

Learn about the differences between the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Japan Awaits GDP

Forecast: Bearish

The Japanese Nikkei 225 will look to Wednesday’s release of Q4 GDP data for the country. Japan’s economy has faced disappointing growth figures in recent quarters and hopes to avoid another one with the data release for the most recent quarter. A surprise to the topside could stoke some bullishness but with economists across the globe warning of slowing growth, the risk of a miss seems greater than that of a surprise. Similarly, a miss would only confirm global growth concerns and dent equity sentiment further.

View our Economic Calendar for key data releases like Japanese and German GDP due next week.

Nikkei 225 Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (September 2017 – February 2019) (Chart 2)

Nikkei 225

Germany Looks to Avoid Recession

Forecast: Bearish

The German DAX 30 awaits GDP data due on Wednesday. Technically speaking, two successive quarters with a fall in GDP constitutes a recession. At present, a Reuters poll forecasts German GDP to climb by 0.1% after receding -0.2% last quarter. With risks skewed to the downside, the data point may be the most critical piece for the DAX but will likely have a considerable impact on all other European equities. Long referred to as the “powerhouse” of Europe, a recession would not bode well for the continent’s outlook. Broader growth concerns and widespread European equity weakness could then spread to the US equity session.

DAX 30 Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (September 2016 – February 2019) (Chart 3)

Dax30

Another headwind facing the DAX is the possibility of US auto tariffs. The Trump administration has considered such tariffs in an effort to rebalance trade between the United States and the European bloc. German automakers account for 10-12% of the DAX’s market cap and are a critical industry for the country. Should such tariffs be imposed, it could have considerable downward pressure on the DAX and US indices as it would open a new trade war front for the United States.

Read more: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact Peter on Twitter at @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Yen are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introduction to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Could Take Some Rest On The Road Lower

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – NZD/USD Looks Vulnerable. How Dovish Will the RBNZ Turn Next Week?

Oil Forecast – Fears of Slowing Global Growth to Limit Further Gains

British Pound Forecast – Dovish BoE, Brexit Hell

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar May Build on Rebound as Market Mood Sours Further

Gold Forecast – Bull-Flag Unfolds as Fed Warns of 'Muted' Inflation

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.