News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/cwSWCpKtaj
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zu5hMovbz6
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/QMKyTBOKNG
Oil Forecast: Fears of Slowing Global Growth to Limit Further Gains

Oil Forecast: Fears of Slowing Global Growth to Limit Further Gains

Rich Dvorak, Analyst
Crude Oil

Oil Forecast: Fears of Slowing Global Growth to Limit Further Gains

Crude Oil Talking Points:

  • Crude oil price outlook for next week is bearish as the slowing global growth narrative may crimp demand further
  • Production cuts and expected rebound in demand for oil is largely factored into current prices, leaving risks tilted to the downside
  • Support for further gains in crude oil could come from upcoming economic data if numbers surprise to the upside

Crude oil prices came under pressure this past week in response to the return of market angst over slowing global growth and surprise US inventory buildup of approximately 1 million barrels according to data released by the EIA. WTI Crude started the week slightly above $55.00/bbl but ended the period roughly 4.5 percent lower at $52.50/bbl as investors evaluated the balance between shrinking oil supply and demand.

Looking for a technical perspective on the crude oil? Check out the Weekly crude oil Technical Forecast.

CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: 15-MINUTE TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 04, 2019 TO FEBRUARY 08, 2019)

Crude Oil

In addition to supply and demand factors, a strong US Dollar which climbed in excess of 1 percent likely contributed to the downside in crude over the last 5 days of trading given the currency is the principal pricing instrument for this and most major commodities.

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE PRICE CHART: QUARTERLY TIME FRAME (JANUARY 2017 TO JUNE 2019)

Crude Oil

The most recent International Energy AgencyOil Market Report indicated that OPEC crude output declined by 590,000 barrels in December with the supply cuts expected to continue into 2019 from the cartel’s Vienna Agreement to curb production. The updated report for January will be published Wednesday, February 13 and looks to provide further insight on global oil supply and demand imbalances.

The rebound in oil off its December low mirrored the influx of risk appetite witnessed across the stock market, but recent optimism looks like it may quickly shift back to a pessimistic view. The narrative of investor fear over slowing global growth appears to be evolving into economic reality as recent data suggests – like the European Commission cutting already bleak Eurozone GDP growth from 1.9 percent to a meager 1.3 percent for this year. GDP numbers out of Germany and Japan are expected next week and could reinforce investor angst over deteriorating global fundamentals and thereby demand for fuel to power weaker expansion.

Additionally, the risk of a US government shutdown occurring again lingers in the background with the stopgap funding bill passed late last month having only funded the government through February 15. If a new agreement cannot be reached between congress and President Trump before then, investor sentiment could sour on the prospect of the government shutdown dragging on which would adversely impact US economic growth.

Consequently, the uptick in oil demand expected for the first and second quarters of the year may be revised lower if the global economy continues to weaken which in turn bodes poorly for oil demand and prices. On the contrary, crude bulls may very well prevail should risk trends and economic data surprise to the upside.

---

Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

Follow on Twitter @RichDvorakFX

Check out our Education Center for more information on Currency Forecasts and Trading Guides.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Could Take Some Rest On The Road Lower

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – NZD/USD Looks Vulnerable. How Dovish Will the RBNZ Turn Next Week?

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES