We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.80% Silver: 0.44% Gold: -0.52% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/0gaXCueC8q
  • 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence Actual: 86.6 Expected: 87.5 Previous: 86.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.63%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 73.88%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/2vftZNVsbx
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.92% Silver: 1.39% Gold: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/X4ZaAW4bAg
  • Global GDP forecasted to drop 4.6% for 2020 according to Fitch - BBG
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -21.9% Previous: -15.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 87.5 Previous: 86.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.70% Wall Street: 1.21% Germany 30: 1.20% US 500: 0.87% FTSE 100: -0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/IQYBPY8iLP
  • ECB's Guindos says no decision made on purchases of junk bonds - BBG
  • Among the risk-leaning FX benchmarks, $AUDUSD is up to its own 200-day moving average as it progresses to 3-month highs https://t.co/Lxmsb6OKVQ
US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Forecast: USD Buffeted by Market Volatility, Fed, Politics

US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Forecast: USD Buffeted by Market Volatility, Fed, Politics

2018-12-29 15:00:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

A Confluence of Fundamental Storms Will Complicate the Dollar’s Role

The Dollar managed another advance through the final three-month period to close out 2018. Though, activity through the quarter was somewhat misleading as the fundamental backdrop was exceptionally tumultuous with several conflicting themes and complications making it difficult for the market to establish a clear beat on what exactly would prevail in establishing a trend for the world’s most liquid currency.

Heading into 2019, the Greenback will continue to be buffeted by systemic crosswinds that could cater to its more elementary fundamental roles or alternatively see capital diverted by unique stability risks. One thing looks certain, the first quarter of the new year will be facing an environment of high volatility. That is the investor term for ‘uncertainty’, which holds obvious risks but also a few possible benefits.

The political and geopolitical environments represent more profound risk to the US economy and currency, while more traditional considerations of cooling GDP could further undermine the Federal Reserve’s intentions to further tighten policy.

On the other hand, with utter fear comes the panicked demand for absolute liquidity for which the Dollar still holds the undisputed title. When it comes to projecting the US currency’s course, a healthy appreciation of the technicals and the question “just how intense are market conditions” will prove the best compass.

See the complete Q1'19 US Dollar forecast as well as forecats for the other major currencies, equities, Gold, and Oil.

--- Written by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.