Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Forecast: USD Buffeted by Market Volatility, Fed, Politics

US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Forecast: USD Buffeted by Market Volatility, Fed, Politics

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

A Confluence of Fundamental Storms Will Complicate the Dollar’s Role

The Dollar managed another advance through the final three-month period to close out 2018. Though, activity through the quarter was somewhat misleading as the fundamental backdrop was exceptionally tumultuous with several conflicting themes and complications making it difficult for the market to establish a clear beat on what exactly would prevail in establishing a trend for the world’s most liquid currency.

Heading into 2019, the Greenback will continue to be buffeted by systemic crosswinds that could cater to its more elementary fundamental roles or alternatively see capital diverted by unique stability risks. One thing looks certain, the first quarter of the new year will be facing an environment of high volatility. That is the investor term for ‘uncertainty’, which holds obvious risks but also a few possible benefits.

The political and geopolitical environments represent more profound risk to the US economy and currency, while more traditional considerations of cooling GDP could further undermine the Federal Reserve’s intentions to further tighten policy.

On the other hand, with utter fear comes the panicked demand for absolute liquidity for which the Dollar still holds the undisputed title. When it comes to projecting the US currency’s course, a healthy appreciation of the technicals and the question “just how intense are market conditions” will prove the best compass.

See the complete Q1'19 US Dollar forecast as well as forecats for the other major currencies, equities, Gold, and Oil.

--- Written by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES