We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @YuanTalks: #China temporarily suspend additional tariffs of either 10% or 5% on some #US goods scheduled to take effect on Dec 15, said…
  • The gold-silver ratio is simple. It is the number of silver ounces you would need to trade to receive one ounce of #gold at current market prices. Find out how you can use this in your trading strategy here:https://t.co/kh5DZvv5ib $XAUUSD https://t.co/eJGODpfTNc
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/DoVBd1l1oO
  • #Silver is a precious metal commodity that investors use as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Find out what are some strategies and tips to trade silver here: https://t.co/k4tVcFuwxW #CommoditieswithDailyFX https://t.co/zXCSmH2HLX
  • Markets are trying to maintain a bullish tilt as a new week rolls around, a look ahead at the charts of the #Dow, #DAX, and #FTSE. Get your technical analysis on major world indices from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/bYjRDvQsdM https://t.co/mbg0rUbv3K
  • Trade conflict is clearly awful for the broad world economy, but some countries are already benefiting from it. More stand to do so. Spotting them early could be profitable. Get your update on the #tradewar from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/og0VAPAqwm https://t.co/xB8hYUj4OA
  • #Gold prices may suffer if better-than-expected US economic data and progress on US-China trade negotiations cool 2020 Fed rate cuts and alleviate demand for anti-fiat hedges. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/3ula2sUpqL $gld https://t.co/2iZwxcm3wP
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/KCZ48rDnhy
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tTXcw1b7Tp
  • RT @dlacalle_IA: ... “Temporary” Fed plans to double repo market intervention to avoid cash crunch https://t.co/j6N3Qmo6HX
US Dollar Q4 Forecast: Dollar Feels Pressure of Its Trade Wars, Politics, Fed

US Dollar Q4 Forecast: Dollar Feels Pressure of Its Trade Wars, Politics, Fed

Share:

The US Dollar has proven resilient in the months since US President Trump declared that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” It is possible investors ignore this enormous burden until it starts to have its tangible impact on the economy – but speculative markets rarely wait. Traders will be forced to weigh concerns about the US-China trade war with the prospect for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s intentions have been well telegraphed for years. Therefore, while the full extent of their ultimate tightening proram has not been totally priced in; much of the forward value is likely accounted for in its current levels.

DXY Index Price Chart: Weekly Timeframe (October 2015 to September 2018) (Chart 1)

US Dollar Q4 Forecast: Dollar Feels Pressure of Its Trade Wars, Politics, Fed

As we move into the close of what’s become a volatile year for the US Dollar, we’re faced with two possible trends to work with. Either the 13-month down-trend that lasted into this February as the Dollar dropped by -15%, even as the monetary backdrop was seemingly tiled in the US Dollar’s favor. Or, we have the two-month up-trend that’s largely stalled out while flagging a series of bearish breakdown signals throughout Q3.As we move into Q4, the former seems a more attractive path forward, particularly given the fundamental context with which this move has taken place.

See the complete Q4’18 US Dollar forecast as well as forecasts for the other major currencies, equities, Gold, and Oil.

--- Written by John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist and James Stanley, Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.