We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are the trading lessons every #forex trader should learn when diving into the forex market? Get your free guide here: https://t.co/w77TGnEVwP https://t.co/m5ZMY4ao6F
  • The New York #forex session is one of the most liquid #forextrading sessions. Want to learn to trade in this session? Read up! https://t.co/qDNTKLVhFa https://t.co/tZetcS5Ev7
  • #DidYouKnow a #Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/roWhofPtMb
  • $USD price action has edged roughly 1.5% lower since touching year-to-date highs earlier this month and the recent stretch of weakness jeopardizes the US Dollar’s bullish trend. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/10/13/usd-price-us-dollar-technical-forecast-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-usdcad.html
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇮🇳 World Bank Says #India Faces Severe Slowdown, Cuts GDP Forecast - Bloomberg *India’s gross domestic product growth seen a…
  • Why are Bollinger Bands @bbands and #forex such a good combo? Because forex is a form of pairs trading, each transaction involving a long position in one currency and a short position in another. Find out how you can use it in your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZuN2xl5GIw https://t.co/G0ByyTvBnT
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Bf4KXjRYzR
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within the financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy within a trading system can enhance a trader’s market analysis technique. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/4mSc3NB4qM
  • Currency markets may be battered by breakneck volatility if a slowdown in global economic growth triggers a collapse in the fragile market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/KfjjtaXs7b https://t.co/FbNC12Nq6A
  • The $GBP will be in for a volatile week ahead of critical talks at the EU-UK summit as the October 31 deadline approaches. Will policymakers be able to avoid a no-deal #Brexit? Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/r7eAf885V6 https://t.co/sqqRqnrPYa
Crude Oil Price Drops for Sixth Straight Week, Most in 3 Years

Crude Oil Price Drops for Sixth Straight Week, Most in 3 Years

2018-08-10 17:14:00
Tyler Yell CMT,
Share:

Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Neutral

Talking Points:

  • The ONE Thing: Escalating tensions between China and the United States continue to weigh on prospects of global demand for crude at the same time supply is returning to the market...
  • Six straight weekly losses would account for the longest losing streak in oil in three years
  • Per BHI, U.S. total count to 1057 from 1044; US Crude Oil Drilling Rig Count to 869 from 859
  • The technical picture warrants focus for strong bullish support at 200-DMA ($65.71)

The pressure in the physical oil market continues to lessen as the price of the front-month oil contract has fallen for the sixth week when looking to week-over-week changes in price. The future’s calendar spread between December 2018 and December 2019 dropped to the tightest (less buying pressure in the near-term) in Brent crude in nine months with the WTI equivalent seeing the tightest level since June.

Next week, OPEC is set to issue their monthly oil report on Monday on the same day as the EIA’s monthly Drilling Productivity Report. The next day, traders will get Chinese Data released at 10:00 Beijing time (22:00 ET August 13.)

The IEA, who advises most of the world’s major economies on energy noted in their monthly report this week that, “Concerns about the stability of oil supply have cooled down somewhat, at least for now. Most of this is due to OPEC, and strategic alliances like Russia have boosted output so that supply shortage (and bullish prospects for traders) are falling.

Crude Oil Chart Tests 200-MDA Support

Crude Oil Price Drops for Sixth Straight Week, Most in 3 Years

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, WTI and Brent crude has become the market everyone is discussing! Unlock our forecast here

The drop in crude oil has yet to surpass anything witnessed in prior months. The price is approaching the 200-DMA as support. Only a break lower followed by an inability to move above the strong-handed 200-day price average could make a sufficient argument that we may not see oil trade above $70 for some time.

Sentiment has remained bullish despite the lower high on the charts. Traders have likely become accustomed to favorable geopolitical shocks, but with the re-opening of the strongest OPEC producer’s oil taps, there may be ready supply available that could limit upside shocks.

Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy Markets:

The fundamental focal points for the energy market next week:

  • Monday (typically 0600-0700 ET): OPEC issues Monthly Oil Market Report
  • Monday 14:00 ET: EIA’s Monthly Crude Oil Market Report
  • Monday 22:00 ET: China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases metals andenergy output data for July
  • Tuesday 16:30 ET: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • Wednesday 10:30 ET: EIA publishes weekly US Oil Inventory Report
  • Friday 13:00 ET: Baker-Hughes Rig Count
  • Friday 15:30 ET: Release of the CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on U.S. futures, options contracts

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as trading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.