Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

S&P 500, DAX, FTSE Forecast: FOMC, NFPs, BoE in Week Ahead

Talking Points:

  • FOMC & NFPs; S&P 500 tone remains constructive, but could soon change
  • German Unemployment, Euro-zone inflation data to impact DAX
  • BoE Super Thursday; FTSE wedge should resolve in days ahead

For forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

S&P 500

Next week the market’s attention will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but with expectations for the Fed to remain on hold with rates it will be about the language in the statement. The market is effectively pricing in two more hikes by year-end. On Friday, we have NFPs, with the U.S. economy expected to have added 190k jobs during July, down from the 213k print the month prior. For details on all data releases, check out the economic calendar. Trade war headlines will continue to be a threat along with focus on corporate earnings in the week ahead.

The S&P 500 continues to find buyers, but that could soon change as the calendar flips to August. Historically, August and September have not been kind to stocks, and with record highs just around the bend we could see either a double-top or fake-out breakout. We will be watching for an uptick in volatility for signs of growing instability and the possibility of a setback to begin.

S&P 500: Daily

S&P 500, DAX, FTSE Forecast: FOMC, NFPs, BoE in Week Ahead

DAX

Last week’s ECB meeting was rather uneventful as many expected, resulting in limited movement on thein the euro and DAX. Next week we have a good amount of ‘high’ impact data on the docket; highlighted by German Unemployment and Euro-zone CPI and GDP on Tuesday. Keep an eye on U.S. markets and how they respond to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s U.S. jobs report, as large swings there are likely to have at least marginal impact on global markets still open for business.

The DAX is continuing its upward trek within the confines of the channel off the late June low. The market could run into some problems soon, as the trend-line off record levels lies just ahead. If we see a swift turnaround at resistance, shorts may be warranted for a dip. On a move lower, the 200-day and lower parallel will be key support thresholds to watch.

Check out this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

DAX: Daily

S&P 500, DAX, FTSE Forecast: FOMC, NFPs, BoE in Week Ahead

FTSE

This coming week we have ‘Super Thursday’ with the BoE rate announcement in conjunction with the release of its quarterly inflation report. An outsized reaction in sterling could lead to an opposite effect on the price of the FTSE. No moves are expected by the central bank, but rate guidance could sway markets. As is the case with the DAX, watch key U.S. economic events and reactions.

On Tuesday, the FTSE attempted to break free from the ascending wedge it’s been stuck in the past few weeks. A decisive breakout looks to be just ahead with price quickly closing in on the apex. A sustained topside breakout will bring to light the possibility of challenging record highs, while a breakdown will have 7500 and the 200-day in focus.

FTSE: Daily

S&P 500, DAX, FTSE Forecast: FOMC, NFPs, BoE in Week Ahead

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX