News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.39% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.21% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/iLJEEkm0Aj
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.39% Wall Street: 0.36% FTSE 100: 0.36% Germany 30: 0.19% France 40: 0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/gSFAYlE7JN
  • - $BAC announce a $25bln stock buyback
  • #oott https://t.co/NnzZ2RI7P7
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/zfnT79szRk
  • $BAC Q1 Earnings - EPS 0.86 vs 0.66 expected - Revenue 22.82bln vs 21.97bln expected - Trading Revenue 5.08bln vs 4.37bln expected
  • China's Huarong states that they plan full repayment of bond due April 27th
  • while compared to MRNA vaccines, risk of rare blood clotting from Covid-19 is 10x greater
  • Oxford Uni finds that compared to AZ-Oxford vaccine, risk of rare blood clotting from Covid-19 is about 8x greater
  • Please join @PaulRobinsonFX at 6:00 EST/10:00 GMT for a webinar on how you can become a better trader in current markets. Register here: https://t.co/XO3SOn8u43 https://t.co/1AO0tXYz7L
Yuan Eyes on PBOC for Guidance; Stocks Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Trade War

Yuan Eyes on PBOC for Guidance; Stocks Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Trade War

Renee Mu, Currency Analyst
USDCNH daily price chart showing the fundamental forecast for CNH

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR CNH: BEARISH

  • China’s Central Bank seems to have shifted its opinion on the Yuan to more weakness.
  • The falling risk appetite and slow economic growth provide limited support to the Yuan.
  • Chinese equities remain vulnerable amid United States’ threat of additional tariffs.

How to trade news? Learn with DailyFX Free Trading Guides!

THE CHINESE YUAN

The Chinese Yuan lost against all the G10 currencies this week. The USD/CNH touched 6.8362, the weakest level for the Yuan in more than a year. Also, the PBOC, which set a reference rate of the currency on a daily basis, confirmed Yuan’s falling against the U.S. Dollar: The so-called daily fixing dropped -1.4% over the past week; on Friday alone, it declined -0.9%. Looking forward the PBOC’s guidance will continue to be a top driver to the Yuan.

The top policymaker seems to have shifted its view towards the Chinese currency over the past three weeks. On July 3, five PBOC officials commented on the currency, ahead of the deadline of US tariffs on $34 billion Chinese products. Following the remarks, the falling Yuan paused at around 6.70. However, the daily fixing set by the regulator, was weaker than the forecast calculated by Caixin news with PBOC’s formula. This may be because a relatively weak Yuan could help to make up some Chinese exporters ‘losses caused by US tariffs, amid the on-going US-China trade war.

Also, the falling risk appetite may have contributed to Yuan’s selling and could continue to. In addition, China’s economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter, as expected yet hinting uncertainties in the future; the Yuan lacks support from fundamentals. Taking into account all these above, Yuan’s outlook in the medium term remains to be bearish. In the immediate term, a too-fast dropping Yuan could have side effects; thus, the PBOC may guide its pace and is worth to watchclosely.

CHINESE EQUITES

One major side effect of a weak Yuan is its impact to the Chinese stock market. Equities may not necessarily fall with the Yuan – the Shanghai Composite Index closed on Friday slightly lower than in last week. However, the Chinese stock indices are unlikely to reverse the current downtrend, with the Yuan tumbling. This is because a weak Yuan could drag down a significant amount of companies’ stock prices.

In specific, airlines shares have been hurt the most amid the falling Yuan. Since early June, the stock prices of the top Chinese airlines have plunged over -20%; two out of the three lost more than -30%. The Yuan weakness could benefit textile and apparel exporters that have not been impacted by US tariffs yet. However, as the US President Trump threatened to impose additional duties on all Chinese imports, the outlook of these shares is still uncertain.

-- Written by Renee Mu, Currency Analyst with DailyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES