News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.48%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.79%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • 🎯 Bitcoin extending its surge through the weekend to trade back above $35K. Seeing some serious upward momentum here, but in light of Fed event risk this week, it may be prudent for short-term tactical traders to consider unwinding exposure a bit. #Bitcoin $BTC $BTCUSD
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out
  • RT @FxWestwater: Asia AM - New Zealand Dollar Outlook: $NZDUSD Breakout Chance Shifts Into View…
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here:
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here:
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX! A look at the levels heading into #FOMC -
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • Markets Week Ahead: Euro, Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Earnings, Inflation Check out @RichDvorakFX's latest market recap and preview plus all the weekly forecasts from the @DailyFXTeam at the link below! Link to Analysis - $EURUSD $SPX #Trading
NZD/USD May Rise to Options-Derived Resistance on RBNZ

NZD/USD May Rise to Options-Derived Resistance on RBNZ

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points:

  • New Zealand Dollar is priced in for some intense price action over the coming days
  • The currency may rise on the RBNZ rate decision before falling on April’s US CPI
  • NZD/USD downside momentum is slowing warning that prices may turn higher next

Just started trading NZD/USD? Check out our beginners’ FX markets guide!

The New Zealand Dollar might be getting ready to push higher against its US counterpart and prices may pause on near-term options-derived resistance. Looking at the table below, NZD/USD one-day implied volatility is at its highest since the lead-up to the New Zealand minority coalition government announcement back in October 2017. The similar one-week measurement is at its largest since March. A couple of key event risks that are coming up may explain why intense price action is priced in.

Implied Volatility and Market Range for the FX Majors

FX Majors Implied Volatility and Market Range

The immediate one is the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy announcement. There, rates are widely anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.75% which means the central bank’s forward guidance could be what fuels New Zealand Dollar volatility. On this front, there may be scope for Kiwi Dollar gains if their new governor Adrian Orr reemphasizes that long-term inflation expectations are still anchored to 2 percent.

Senior Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak will be covering the RBNZ rate decision. Join the webinar and follow NZD/USD’s reaction to it LIVE.

Looking at the immediate chart below, you can see that NZD/USD’s decline since April has also been accompanied with decreasing local inflation estimates. For example, New Zealand’s 10-year breakeven rate, which basically shows the market’s implied inflation rate, has been steadily declining since then. Simultaneously, RBNZ rate expectations 2 years out have also been on the fall.

Fading New Zealand inflation expectations

Just yesterday, NZD/USD declined as RBNZ’s 2-year inflation expectations survey fell to 2.01% in the second quarter from 2.11% prior. Keep in mind that the views expressed in the poll do not represent the central bank’s forecasts. Thus, if Adrian Orr continues to echo the tone that inflation is going higher in the long-run, then we might see some of those pessimistic views on inflation bets unwind and potentially boost the Kiwi Dollar.

For an alternative view of the New Zealand Dollar on the RBNZ rate decision, check out Analyst David Cottle’s article on what he expects on the announcement.

However, gains may not last for long due to the close proximity of Thursday’s US inflation report. There, the headline rate is anticipated to rise to 2.5% y/y in April from 2.4% prior. Signs of rising price pressures could fuel hawkish Fed monetary policy expectations and thus boost the US Dollar. Such an outcome also bodes ill for the New Zealand Dollar which may presumably will no longer boast the highest yield of the FX majors spectrum.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Ready for a Bounce?

On a daily chart, NZD/USD finds itself sitting squarely on the December 20th low around 0.6952. The pair has been in an aggressive downtrend since mid-April but there is a warning sign that prices could push higher soon. Positive RSI divergence shows that momentum to the downside is slowing. With that in mind, let us take a look where the pair may go.

From here, immediate resistance is a combination of the “day range high” of 0.7017 and a near-term descending line (blue line on chart below). A push above that exposes the “week range high” at 0.7054. If NZD/USD falls then it could be held up by the “day range low” at 0.6909. A push below that exposes the “week range low” at 0.6872.

NZD/USD daily chart showing positive RSI divergence

NZD/USD Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.