News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
Philippine Peso Looks to CPI Data, Malaysian Ringgit to US Jobs Report

Philippine Peso Looks to CPI Data, Malaysian Ringgit to US Jobs Report

Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • Philippine Peso plunged on Hong Kong trade data miss, China PMI weekend beat boosted MYR
  • This week is loaded with event risk: ASEAN meeting, Philippine CPI and US employment data
  • On a weekly chart, USD/MYR shows ebbing momentum to the downside. Is a reversal coming?

Find out what the #1 mistake that traders make is and how you can fix it!

As expected, last week the Philippine Peso didn’t take the news so well that Hong Kong exports rose only 1.7% y/y versus 7.0% expected. That was the weakest outcome since January 2017 and didn’t bode well for the country as HK is one of their major trading partners. Elsewhere, news over the weekend that China’s Manufacturing PMI beat estimates caused the Malaysian Ringgit to gap higher on Monday. As far as this week is concerned, there are plenty of economic updates that can fuel volatility in ASEAN currencies.

In fact, the Indonesia Rupiah is already off to a bad start when the country’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in March from 51.4. A reading above 50 shows expansion while one below indicates contraction. For the country, manufacturing is a vital component of the economy and poor performance on this end could cause the central bank to react by easing monetary policy.

Looking ahead, ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors will meet in Singapore from April 3rd to April 6th. They will be covering topics such as sustaining growth, boosting resilience and fostering innovation. Since these countries rely largely on trading, it will be also be important to watch out for any talks about how they will respond or cope with ongoing US and China tariff developments. Just as this week began, the latter country announced that their response to US metal tariffs will go into effect on Monday.

On Thursday, we will get March’s Philippine CPI data. The headline inflation rate is expected to tick up to 4.7% y/y from 4.5%. Since the Philippine central bank inflation target is 3.0% +-1.0%, such an outcome would mean prices continuing to pull away from the outer limits of the target range. This could increase hawkish policy expectations if the markets believe the central bank will raise rates to fight inflation, boosting the Philippine Peso.

Outside of the bloc, keep your eyes peeled for Friday’s US jobs report. Data out of the country has been outperforming relative to economists’ expectations recently. This opens the door for an upside surprise. While the country is expected to add fewer jobs, average hourly earnings will probably be the more interesting section. This is because earlier this year, the highest wage growth since 2009 sparked aggressive risk aversion. In a similar scenario, sentiment-linked currencies can suffer. Given their higher associated yields, ASEAN bloc currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit could be vulnerable.

USD/MYR Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart Shows Declining Downside Momentum

On a daily chart, USD/MYR has simultaneously broken below a near-term rising line and the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 3.8804. The pair seems to be eager to make more progress to the downside but there are some obstacles ahead. Namely, the 38.2% level at 3.8238 and then the 50% midpoint at 3.7780.

On the other hand, if prices turn back higher, the aforementioned 23.6% Fibonacci extension could act as new resistance. A push above that exposes 3.9297 which is the high achieved back on March 19th. The next target would be the March 1st high around 3.9401.

Philippine Peso Looks to CPI Data, Malaysian Ringgit to US Jobs Report

On a weekly chart, you will notice that positive RSI divergence has emerged as USD/MYR tried to push lower. This indicates ebbing momentum to the downside and could mean that prices may reverse higher.

Philippine Peso Looks to CPI Data, Malaysian Ringgit to US Jobs Report

USD/MYR and other ASEAN Currencies Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES