News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here:
  • We are heading into a Tuesday lull which precedes Wednesday's FOMC focus. Will the absence of distractions allow for risk trends to gain momentum or perhaps will Fed anticipation temper the $SPX tumble? My take:
  • CTV projects Trudeau wins his third term as Canada's Prime Minister - BBG
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • US House Speaker Pelosi says top-line spending number may change but hopes for $3.5 trillion in spending bill - BBG
  • RBA Minutes: - Board committed to providing high level of monetary support - Q3 GDP expected to decline materially - Central scenario is rates on hold until 2024 - BBG $AUDUSD
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes due at 01:30 GMT (15min)
  • New Zealand reports 14 new local Covid cases - BBG
  • I had a chance to talk with @tastytradeRyan and @victorJ0NES about Evergrande and its impact on US markets — always great talking with these two guys on Mondays.
  • RT @cheddar: Stocks dropped the most since May on Monday, sending shockwaves through Wall Street. @CVecchioFX explains the global impact of…
Crude Oil Prices at Risk on Italian Election, Trade Woes, US Data

Crude Oil Prices at Risk on Italian Election, Trade Woes, US Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil: Bearish

  • Crude oil prices fall on hawkish Powell testimony, Trump tariff hike
  • Italian election outcome, US jobs data may compound risk aversion
  • Headlines from CERAWeek, API and EIA inventory data due ahead

See our free guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

Crude oil prices fell alongside stocks as macro-level forces overshadowed other considerations last week. First, hawkish rhetoric from newly minted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stoked fears of a more aggressive rate hike path than had been accounted for. Then, US President Donald Trump announced a tariff hike on imported steel and aluminum, sending markets reeling.

A busy week packed with critical event risk is ahead. The annual five-day CERAWeek conference in Houston will set the backdrop, with comments from industry bigwigs likely to keep traders watching the news wires. The IEA will unveil its new five-year oil market outlook report at the gathering. API and EIA inventory flow data is also due. The latter will also publish an updated short-term market outlook.

Turning to the macro front, the outcome of Italy’s general election is first in focus. A strong showing for the eurosceptic Five-Star Movement (M5S) may sour the markets’ mood. February’s US jobs report is also of note. If wage inflation continues to look elevated, worries about rapid Fed tightening may unnerve investors. Trade war jitters may also keep them on edge as the EU and China ponder a response to the US tariff hike.

On balance, the path of least resistance seems to favor the downside. If Italy’s election passes without handing M5S enough votes for a decisive voice in subsequent coalition negotiations and protectionist pressures ease, the upbeat implications for global growth ought to keep the Fed on the offensive. That might be worrying enough to make for a risk-off mood. Needless to say, the alternative bodes worse.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.