- A look at the weekly technicals on DXY, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Crude
- Review the Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. We looked at a few of these charts in this week’s Strategy Webinar and heading into next week, here are the key levels to consider.
DXY Weekly Chart
Notes: The index has held below slope resistance extending off the 2012 high for a third consecutive week and our outlook remains unchanged heading deeper into November trade. “The immediate advance remains vulnerable while below last week’s high with interim support seen at the 2016 low-week reversal close at 93.89- a break there would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term high is in place.”
Bottom line: Looking lower into next week with a break below the median-line / 52-week moving average needed to validate a reversal. A breach-higher above the parallel would shift the focus towards topside resistance objectives at 95.90 backed by the median-line (~95.58) and the 50% retracement / 52-week moving average at 97.42/60.
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AUD/USD Weekly Chart
Notes: We’ve been tracking this key support confluence at 7630 for a few weeks now and Aussie has continues to hold above this threshold into the close of the week. We’re still looking for signs of basing here. A break lower would target critical support and broader bullish invalidation at 7476with breach above 7735 needed to clear the way for a larger recovery.
Bottom line: The focus remains against this support level heading into next week and I’ll be looking for a final drop into 7476 OR a breach above 7735 to suggest that a near-term low is in place.
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Notes: Last month we highlighted a key resistance confluence with a topside breach risking, ‘a rally up towards the 50-line which converges on the 50% retracement of the yearly range at 1.2927.’ USDCAD rallied to a high of 1.2917 before turning over with the decline now approaching slope support / 200-week moving average around ~1.2530s. The focus is on this key threshold heading into next week with a break below the descending median-line (blue) needed to validate a larger scale reversal in the Loonie.
Bottom line: We’re coming into near-term support into the close of the week, and while we could see a rebound heading into the open, I’ll be looking to fade strength while below the August highs at 1.2778 targeting the 2012 slope line / 200-week moving average.
Crude Weekly Chart
Notes: Crude prices broke through a critical resistance zone at 54-55 with advance pressing higher this week through long-term slope resistance. The near-term outlook remains constructive while above 54 with topside targets eyed at 59/60 where the 200-week moving average converges on the 61.8% ext of the ascent and the 38.2% retracement of 2011 decline. Subsequent resistance objectives stand at the 2015 highs at 62.56.
Bottom line: I’d be looking to fade weakness while above the 50-line / 54 targeting the noted objectives along the median-line. Broader bullish invalidation for the yearly advance now rests at the 50-handle.
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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- A Weekly Technical Perspective on DXY, GBP/USD & Crude
- A Weekly Technical Perspective on AUD, EUR & CHF
- A Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR, GBP & CAD
- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX