A Weekly Technical Perspective on AUD, NZD & CHF
- A look at the weekly technicals on USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD & AUDNZD
- Review the Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Every now and then it’s extremely useful to just scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. We looked at a few of these charts in today’s Weekly Strategy Webinar and heading into the start of the week, here are the key levels to consider.
Notes: I highlighted the possibility for a near-term exhaustion high in Swissie as we were heading into the NFP print last week and while the initial reaction looks good, it’s important to note a key resistance confluence just higher at 9870/82(bearish invalidation). This region is defined by the 52-week moving average, the 50% retracement and converges on the upper parallel of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2015 & 2016 highs.
Bottom line: The immediate rally is at risk while below this key threshold with initial support eyed around 9550s. A weekly close above this region would validate a double bottom formation with such a scenario targeting a measure move into 1.0107.
Notes: Last month we were tracking the rally in Aussie as price was testing parallel resistance, noting that the advance was at risk heading into confluence resistance at 8168. The pair registered a high at 8125 before turning lower with the decline now testing near-term support at 7735. Just lower rests a key support confluence around 7630/65 where the 200-day & 52-week moving averages converge on basic slope support and the 38.2% retracement of the 2016 rally.
Bottom line: Price would need to stabilize above 7630 if the yearly opening range break / broader uptrend is to remain viable. Look for initial resistance at 7830 with a breach above the high-week close at 8054 needed to shift the focus back to the long-side.
NZD/USD Weekly Chart
Notes: Kiwi is approaching a key support confluence here at 7008/38- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement, the 100% ext and basic slope support off the 2015-low. A break below this level would risk substantial losses for the pair with such a scenario targeting the yearly low-week close at 6854 backed by the 61.8% retracement at 6717.
Bottom line: This is a make or break level for Kiwi and we’ll be looking for a reaction there on a move lower. Initial resistance stands at 7140/54 with a breach above 7332 needed to shift the broader focus back to the long-side targeting 7516 and the upper parallel.
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Notes: This setup was brought to my attention in today’s webinar and upon review of the weekly charts, AUDNZD looks to be trading within the confines of a multiyear consolidation pattern. The pair has been following an embedded ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2016 low with price testing the median-line today as resistance (1.1013/19). Support rests at 1.0848 with broader bullish invalidation set to 1.0665.
Bottom line: While I do broadly favor a topside breakout in AUDZNZD, we cannot rule out the threat of a drop into structural support before rallying higher. That said, a breach/weekly close above 1.1152 would be needed to validate the breakout with such a scenario targeting 1.1430/68. We’ll be tracking this one closely over the next few weeks.
- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.