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  • Bank of Japan to mull widening of its long-term yield band -BBG $USDJPY
  • While the rise in longer-dated Treasury yields have been impressive as of late, March highs remain a key focus for resistance The medium-term uptrend remains intact, maintained by rising support from August Fading fiscal stimulus expectations (size) may sour yields ahead https://t.co/L3vBcF0ts7
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/vFJ8zmphMm
  • While the US Dollar has been holding its ground, its downside bias against the Singapore Dollar, New Taiwan Dollar Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah remains intact as it hovers at support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/p7gAztWuVG https://t.co/zB1pOS6U4D
  • The $VIX is now running 227 trading days above the 20 handle. It is also working its way quickly into a dead-end descending triangle. These don't really break lower... https://t.co/39Pr7YrQ08
  • WTI Crude amongst the many market participants taking a hit today, down almost 3% $WTI $USD https://t.co/eg2phm1wUO
  • The power of suggestion: even though the market recognized the mistake with mixing Tesla founder Musk's suggestion to use the Signal app with the stock SIGL, it is still trading >2,000% above pre-remark levels and maintains heavy volume. Us speculators are an interesting people
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.35% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.65% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.75% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.95% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6NZVebT00L
  • one final $BTCUSD chart ahead of the weekend bc I think this is going to remain on the move. 35k support has held for now, but prices are testing a big zone of prior resistance (same that held the high on tues morning). break down/out levels in purple below $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/TeLrBYJXty https://t.co/MewVjXNrRT
  • Silver selling off during trade, now down over 3% $XAG $USD https://t.co/V69rLJMYcC
Stock Index Forecast: The Trend is Your Friend Until It Isn’t

Stock Index Forecast: The Trend is Your Friend Until It Isn’t

Want the full fundamental and technical stock index forecast for the fourth quarter? Get it here!

Talking Points:

  • Ebbing political risk, improved economic backdrop bode well for shares
  • Caution prudent as market exuberance swells to familiarly heady levels
  • Chart positioning favors upside bias but hints at possible turning points

Global equities accelerated upward in the third quarter, and investors can be forgiven a rosy disposition: most of the would-be headwinds lining up to derail gains at the beginning of the year have dissipated. At least from a market sentiment perspective, a worrying election cycle in Europe passed largely without incident. Meanwhile, the global economic growth dynamics tangibly improved.

Caution seems warranted however, as market exuberance approaches familiarly heady levels. The pricing of risk in the bond market is at multi-decade lows. Worryingly, it had fallen to these very levels on the eve of the Great Recession. If investors are feeling as cavalier now as they did then, might they allow errors that lead to a similarly catastrophic outcome?

From a technical perspective, the long-term uptrend seems to be firmly intact. The benchmark S&P 500 index is seemingly poised to find itself higher at the end of the fourth quarter than it was at the beginning. As with the fundamental picture however, this too is not unqualified. Indeed, the chart setup is offering a glimpse of pivotal areas that in time might emerge as the place where the tide ultimately turns.

S&P 500 (weekly chart)

Stock Index Forecast: The Trend is Your Friend Until It Isn’t

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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