A Weekly Technical Perspective for USD Majors
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- A look at the weekly technicals across the Dollar Majors
- DXY at make-or-break levels; crosses to consider in both scenarios
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Every now and then it’s helpful to just scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. We looked at a few of these charts in today’s Weekly Strategy Webinar and heading deeper into September trade, here are the key levels to consider.
DXY Weekly Chart
Notes: The DXY broke below BIG support in July with the decline now attempting to push below confluence support at 91.93. This week’s close will be paramount with a move lower targeting the 2009 high at 89.62 backed by the 50% retracement at 88.26. Interim resistance stands at 93.13 backed by the descending median-line (currently ~94).
Bottom line: from a trading standpoint, I’m looking sideways-to-higher near-term before turning sharply lower with the broader outlook weighted to the downside while below the median-line. US CPI, retail sales, and the U. of Michigan confidence surveys on are tap this week.
Notes: Euro broke above the 2015 trendline support back in July with the rally now responding to a major resistance confluence at the upper parallel / 2012 low around 1.2042/80. Note that momentum is still in overbought territory and I’d be looking for a weekly close below the 70-threshold to suggest a larger correction is underway. Interim support rests at 1.1876 backed by the 50-line, currently ~1.1720s.
Bottom line: the immediate risk is for some sort of correction here, but I’d be extremely nimble on short-exposure until we get some further confirmation. That said, a larger set back would offer favorable long-opportunities with a breach higher targeting 1.2167 backed by the 2008 low at 1.2495 & the 61.8% retracement at 1.2598.
Notes: Sterling has been trading within the confines of this ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2016 & 2017 lows with a breach above the yearly opening range in March shifting the focus higher in the GBPUSD. The advance is now approaching basic trendline resistance extending off the 2014 high- this level converges on the yearly highs around ~1.3270.
Bottom line: this is my favorite pair in the event of continued USD weakness and although we may get some pullback off these levels, the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside while within this formation. Keep in mind there’s lots of UK event risk on tap this week with CPI figures tomorrow followed by the jobless claims and the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.
Notes: Aussie made a break of its yearly opening range and a multi-year consolidation range back in July with the advance now eyeing resistance just higher at the confluence of parallel resistance and the 100% extension at 8168. The advance is at risk heading into this region but the focus remains higher while above former trendline resistance, now support, off the 2016 high (currently around 7680s). A breach higher targets the upper parallel backed by 8452.
Bottom line: the momentum profile isn’t all that encouraging at the moment and I’m hesitant to play the long-side from here- that said I would be looking for favorable entries on a move lower. Keep in mind we have Australia employment data on tap this Thursday. Click here for the most recent AUDUSD updated highlighting the near-term levels.
- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.