News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Sterling continues to nudge higher against most major currencies with traders placing their trust in the ongoing UK vaccination plan. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/OvFP8Zzz5b https://t.co/rwofebQHTq
  • $EURUSD has dropped sharply over the last few days and may well fall further. However, it is also possible that the bad news is now priced in to the exchange rate and that further weakness will be delayed. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/mDGlI1aS6o https://t.co/1xYg0muBJI
  • The Brexit timeline can be followed one event after another. Use this tool from DailyFX research to sharpen your knowledge on the Brexit timeline here: https://t.co/kFDzTWODDo https://t.co/TT1FwFK8cJ
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/Uz6LKXdR2k
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/fGi6YgqqQt
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/fdigOgkmio
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAErd70 https://t.co/Ilqz8BWTk0
  • The final ‘full’ week of the year brings about the last wave of significant event risk from around the globe, including three central bank rate decisions (Fed, BOE, & BOJ). Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/PhqxSPlngI https://t.co/XX57vSjQwV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HOvzuOICQx
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/32hYzqhuZ9
Crude Oil Price Fails To Hold Momentum From Best Week of 2017

Crude Oil Price Fails To Hold Momentum From Best Week of 2017

2017-08-05 04:37:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Crude Oil Price Fails To Hold Momentum From Best Week of 2017

Fundamental Forecast for USOIL:Bullish

Talking Points:

  • Oil market is demand driven this summer as evidenced by 1-week avg. gasoline demand record
  • Bullish momentum stalls in energy market and USD finds life on solid NFP
  • Oil calendar spreads shifting from Contango to Backwardation favoring falling concerns
  • Per Baker Hughes, US Oil Rig count falls by 1 rig to 765 total active US oil rigs
  • IGCS showing increase in retail short oil positions, contrarian view suggests prices rise further

If supply will not come down or does not fall as much as desired, demand will need to rise. Early in the year, that did not seem like a recipe for success as global demand was not showing the signs of life that it has at late, thanks in large part to China. However, we are in a demand driven market, and that seems to suit Oil fine.

On Wednesday, the EIA Crude Oil Inventory report did not show the expected draw of supplies, though a drop of 1.53m barrels did occur against expectations of a 3m barrel draw. However, the story and key takeaway was in the demand for oil products like Gasoline. The one-week average gasoline demand pushed to a fresh record high of 9.84m barrels a day. Of course, seasonality plays a large part in this, but we’re also seeing record gross oil inputs from refiners (who turn Oil into gasoline) of 17.77m barrels a day. Wednesday’s Crude inventory draw was the fifth successive weekly draw.

Another positive sign witnessed this week on the supply and demand picture is that year-on-year supply fell for the first time since 2014 this week. This is a healthy sign that bloated inventories of crude are falling against the same time a year ago. Much of this can also be blamed on stronger seasonal demand, which is likely to fall over the coming months.

New OPEC actions and oil product demand is helping the energy market.. Click here to see our Q3 forecast on what outcomes we're watching!

On the price chart below, you can see that Crude Oil price broke above the chart resistance and bearish price channel that has framed price action for most of 2017. We will look for the price to hold above $47/bbl in WTI to validate that there is bullish momentum that could keep price supported near and above $50. One development in the options market that could produce a price ceiling is the sharp spike in put positions. Puts are options that give the buyer a right to sell at a higher price and are popular among producers. Therefore, if major drillers are amassing hedges, it could act as a price ceiling that will make the lower half of $50/bbl hard to crack.

Crude Oil price holds above strong resistance from confluence of levels near $48.20

Crude Oil Price Fails To Hold Momentum From Best Week of 2017

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy Markets:

The fundamental focal points for the energy market next week:

  • Monday: OPEC/non-OPEC Joint Technical Committee meets in Abu Dhabi to discuss compliance with oil-output cuts
  • Tuesday 4:30 PM ET: API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • Wednesday 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Supply Report
  • Fridays 1:00 PM ET: Baker-Hughes Rig Count at
  • Friday 3:30 PM ET: Release of the CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on U.S. futures, options contracts

Crude Oil IG Client Sentiment Highlight: Contrarian view suggests rise in price holds

Crude Oil Price Fails To Hold Momentum From Best Week of 2017

The insight derived from this sentiment analysis on Oil is that traders are increasing their short exposure (red line on bottom half of chart) while reducing their long coverage despite recent gains. Considering this, the sentiment picture favors further gains.

-TY

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES