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Brexit Briefing: GBPUSD Below 1.30 As Talks End With Little Progress

Brexit Briefing: GBPUSD Below 1.30 As Talks End With Little Progress

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- GBPUSD ended European trading Thursday below the psychologically-important 1.30 level.

- It’s clear that little progress has been made in the Brexit talks, which will resume late August.

Looking for a longer-term outlook for GBP? Check out our brand new Trading Guides: they’re free and have just been updated for the third quarter of 2017

GBPUSD tumbled back below the 1.30 level in late European trading Thursday as it became clear that the second round of divorce talks between the UK and the EU has ended with the two sides little or no closer on any of the key issues. Moreover, the next round of discussions will not now begin until after the summer break in late August.

Both the UK’s David Davis and the EU’s Michel Barnier said there had been some progress but it was clear there had been no breakthrough on any of the key issues, and the UK made it plain that it will leave the EU in 2019, deal or no deal.

The British Pound, which had earlier received a brief boost from better-than-expected UK retail sales data, fell back as the lack of a breakthrough became obvious. Though it later steadied, GBPUSD still ended London trading below the1.30 level.

Chart: GBPUSD Five-Minute Timeframe (July 20, 2017)

Brexit Briefing: GBPUSD Below 1.30 As Talks End With Little Progress

Chart by IG

Elsewhere, the Pound fell to its lowest level for eight months against the Euro, which was boosted by a comment from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that a possible tightening of Euro-Zone monetary policy will be discussed in the fall. EURUSD ended the European day just under 0.90.

The FTSE 100 index, which generally moves in the opposite direction to the Pound, gained almost 0.8% and UK government bonds also moved ahead, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt falling to 1.204%.

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

+0.77%

7,488

DAX

-0.04%

12,447

GBP/USD

-0.47%

1.2963

EUR/USD

+1.04%

1.1634

EUR/GBP

+1.52%

0.8975

Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

July 21, 0800

UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (£) (June)

July 21, 0830

-

13.4b

UK Central Government Net Cash Requirement (£) (June)

July 21, 0830

-

10.5b

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (June)

July 21, 0830

4.2b

6.0b

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex. Banking Groups (£) (June)

July 21, 0830

4.9b

6.7b

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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