News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 CBR Press Conference due at 12:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-23
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Bundesbank Mauderer Speech due at 12:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-23
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/yXomAftdv8 https://t.co/9N3XRViUin
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.61%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 69.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/4I6evWndsv
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/afeXKfZT4K
  • 🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4.25% Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-23
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.43% Gold: 0.29% Silver: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/joUZve1zxA
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.44% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/jitwr50kLY
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision due at 10:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-23
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.38% France 40: 1.05% Germany 30: 0.78% Wall Street: 0.26% US 500: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/T1eJUg4Xb4
Brexit Briefing: Trade, the Repeal Bill and May's Woes

Brexit Briefing: Trade, the Repeal Bill and May's Woes

2017-07-11 09:16:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

- It’s far too early to say that Brexit is no longer an influence on the British Pound and other UK assets.

- For more information listen in to our European desk round-table webinar at 1000 GMT.

-Also check out our brand new Trading Guides: they’re free and have just been updated for the third quarter of 2017

In recent days, the Brexit debate has focused on the rights of EU citizens in the UK after the country’s divorce becomes absolute; an important issue but unlikely to be a market mover. There are plenty of other issues bubbling under the surface, however, that could yet affect the British Pound.

Take trade. It looks increasingly likely that after Brexit the UK will no longer be part of either the EU single market or the customs union. However, it’s also possible that the country will be able to agree several unilateral trade deals that will offset the losses from a lack of free trade with the rest of the EU.

For example, US President Donald Trump has promised to conclude a US-UK trade deal “very, very quickly”. Also, Australia is very keen to secure a trade deal with the UK post Brexit “as quickly as possible”, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said.Any such deals would almost certainly support the Pound.

Meanwhile, the Repeal Bill legislation to begin the process of transferring EU law into British law is expected to be published Thursday, and the bill’s progress through Parliament could yet be an influence on UK assets, despite traders’ current obsession with the “will they or won’t they” debate about whether the Bank of England is poised to increase UK interest rates.

Then there are the political woes of weakened UK Prime Minister Theresa May. She has reached out to opposition parties to ensure an orderly Brexit but that has been rejected summarily by the main opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Some insiders also continue to believe that she will be replaced as Prime Minister sooner rather than later by one of her Conservative Party colleagues.

This all has the potential to undermine the Pound, London-listed stocks and UK government bonds even if unilateral trade deals are concluded quickly.

Chart: GBPUSD Daily Timeframe (January 2017 to Date)

Brexit Briefing: Trade, the Repeal Bill and May's Woes

Chart by IG

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

-0.68%

7,320

DAX

+0.16%

12,465

GBP/USD

+0.24%

1.2912

EUR/USD

-0.04%

1.1396

EUR/GBP

-0.28%

0.8825

Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

Bank of England’s Andy Haldane speaks

July 11, 1000

Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent speaks

July 11, 1100

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, check out the IG Client Sentiment Data

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES