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Brexit Briefing: Trade, the Repeal Bill and May's Woes

Brexit Briefing: Trade, the Repeal Bill and May's Woes

2017-07-11 09:16:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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Talking Points

- It’s far too early to say that Brexit is no longer an influence on the British Pound and other UK assets.

- For more information listen in to our European desk round-table webinar at 1000 GMT.

-Also check out our brand new Trading Guides: they’re free and have just been updated for the third quarter of 2017

In recent days, the Brexit debate has focused on the rights of EU citizens in the UK after the country’s divorce becomes absolute; an important issue but unlikely to be a market mover. There are plenty of other issues bubbling under the surface, however, that could yet affect the British Pound.

Take trade. It looks increasingly likely that after Brexit the UK will no longer be part of either the EU single market or the customs union. However, it’s also possible that the country will be able to agree several unilateral trade deals that will offset the losses from a lack of free trade with the rest of the EU.

For example, US President Donald Trump has promised to conclude a US-UK trade deal “very, very quickly”. Also, Australia is very keen to secure a trade deal with the UK post Brexit “as quickly as possible”, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said.Any such deals would almost certainly support the Pound.

Meanwhile, the Repeal Bill legislation to begin the process of transferring EU law into British law is expected to be published Thursday, and the bill’s progress through Parliament could yet be an influence on UK assets, despite traders’ current obsession with the “will they or won’t they” debate about whether the Bank of England is poised to increase UK interest rates.

Then there are the political woes of weakened UK Prime Minister Theresa May. She has reached out to opposition parties to ensure an orderly Brexit but that has been rejected summarily by the main opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Some insiders also continue to believe that she will be replaced as Prime Minister sooner rather than later by one of her Conservative Party colleagues.

This all has the potential to undermine the Pound, London-listed stocks and UK government bonds even if unilateral trade deals are concluded quickly.

Chart: GBPUSD Daily Timeframe (January 2017 to Date)

Brexit Briefing: Trade, the Repeal Bill and May's Woes

Chart by IG

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

-0.68%

7,320

DAX

+0.16%

12,465

GBP/USD

+0.24%

1.2912

EUR/USD

-0.04%

1.1396

EUR/GBP

-0.28%

0.8825

Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

Bank of England’s Andy Haldane speaks

July 11, 1000

Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent speaks

July 11, 1100

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, check out the IG Client Sentiment Data

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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