News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Canadian Dollar Outlook: Retail Sales Data May Fuel USD/CAD Downtrend - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/10/21/Canadian-Dollar-Outlook-Retail-Sales-Data-May-Fuel-USDCAD-Downtrend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CAD $CADJPY $USDCAD https://t.co/sCKDAgobER
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.55% Wall Street: 0.46% Germany 30: 0.25% France 40: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wmmWvAUv4Y
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/soVRqRLnrT
  • 🇬🇧 Core Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 0.6% Expected: 1.3% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇬🇧 Inflation Rate MoM (SEP) Actual: 0.4% Expected: 0.5% Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (SEP) Actual: £-36.1B Expected: £-33.6B Previous: £-35.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇬🇧 Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 0.5% Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Inflation Rate MoM (SEP) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.5% Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (SEP) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: £-33.6B Previous: £-35.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
Brexit Briefing: EU Fears That Brexit Talks May Collapse

Brexit Briefing: EU Fears That Brexit Talks May Collapse

2017-05-19 10:03:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

- EU chief negotiator Barnier wary over Brexit bill.

- UK Brexit secretary Davis prepared to leave the table.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier has warned that Brexit talks could breakdown unless other member states reign in their calls for an excessive divorce bill. According to The Guardian, EU Commission minutes show that Barnier is worried that unless other member states pay more post-Brexit, or receive less, reducing the UK’s bill, PM Theresa May would make good on her promise that no deal is better than a bad deal, a situation that neither side really wants.

And UK Brexit secretary David Davis added to the EU’s fears when he admitted recently that he was preparing for the possibility of leaving the EU without a deal, saying that he had a “whole unit planning for every possible option and every opportunity too, but my aim and my expectation is that we’re going to get a free-trade agreement.”

According to independent think tank Institute for Government, the divorce figures seen floating around in the media have a wide range due to varying methodologies for calculating the bill.

“The lower band EUR25 billion represents minimal obligations to the EU and maximum UK receipts, while the top-end EUR75 billion comes from maximizing the UK’s obligations and minimizing its receipts. The gross figures of EUR100 billion includes some extra obligations and does not take any account of any receipts owed to the UK.”

To add to the confusion over the cost of the UK leaving the EU, research by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales shows the divorce bill could cost as little as £5 billion. The study showed three different cases: a low-scenario of £5 billion, a central-scenario of £15 billion and a high-scenario of £30 billion.

GBP meanwhile remains stuck in a rough 0.8400 to 0.8800 band against the single currency, with a sustained breakout of this range unlikely in the short-term. The EUR recently perked up on the back of better-than-expected economic data, although lowly inflation remains a worry, while GBP continues to shrug off weak economic data – April retail sales data aside – and continues to slowly claw back post-Brexit losses.

Chart: EUR/GBP Weekly Timeframe (June 2015 – May 19, 2017)

Brexit Briefing: EU Fears That Brexit Talks May Collapse

Chart by IG

Upcoming GBP/EUR Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

EUR German IFO – Current Assessment (April)

May 23, 0800

121.0

121.1

EUR Euro-Zone Composite PMI (April)

May 24, 0800

56.8

GBP GDP (Q-o-Q) Q1 Provisional

May 25, 0830

0.3%

0.3%

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

0.42%

7,467

DAX

0.41%

12,642

GBP/USD

0.53%

1.3010

EUR/USD

0.54%

1.11620

EUR/GBP

-0.01%

0.85788

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Don't trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES