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Brexit Briefing: Macron Could Make a Deal Even Harder to Reach

Brexit Briefing: Macron Could Make a Deal Even Harder to Reach

2017-05-08 16:16:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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Talking Points

- Macron’s adviser says he’ll be tough in the Brexit talks but won’t seek to punish the UK.

- Nonetheless, the UK will have to face up to another ardent pro-EU negotiator.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

France’s President-Elect Emmanuel Macron will be tough in the negotiations over the terms of the UK’s divorce from the EU but won’t seek to punish Britain, his economic adviser Jean Pisani-Ferry told BBC Radio Monday.

Although Pisani-Ferry also said that no-one has an interest in a “hard” Brexit, Macron’s election will put another ardent pro-EU politician on the other side of the table from the UK negotiating team and will arguably make a deal even tougher to reach. Macron has already described Brexit as a “crime” and if there were any doubts about his commitment to the EU they disappeared when he arrived at his victory rally in Paris Sunday to the sound of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy, the EU’s national anthem.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May naturally congratulated Macron “warmly” on his win but she will know that Macron is not someone who will want the UK to leave the EU without paying a heavy price. She will also have to face a German Chancellor Angela Merkel reinvigorated by a victory for her CDU party in a weekend election in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein. Merkel now has a substantial lead over the opposition SPD ahead of federal elections in September.

In response, May said Monday that “we need to make sure we’ve got an equally strong mandate and an equally strong negotiating position” as she canvassed for her ruling Conservative Party ahead of the UK general election on June 8. Her wishes could be fulfilled: an ICM opinion poll for The Guardian newspaper suggested a 22 percentage point lead over the opposition Labour Party. The lead is the largest on record for any UK election survey it has conducted, ICM said.

In the markets, EUR/GBP weakened modestly Monday but serious Brexit negotiations will only begin once the UK election is over so for now the talks are in limbo.

Chart: EUR/GBP Five-Minute Timeframe (May 8 Intraday)

Brexit Briefing: Macron Could Make a Deal Even Harder to Reach

Chart by IG

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

+0.04%

7,300

DAX

-0.16%

12,697

GBP/USD

-0.35%

1.2934

EUR/USD

-0.66%

1.0925

EUR/GBP

-0.32%

0.8446

Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Mar)

May 9, 0600

-0.7%

2.2%

German Industrial Production n.s.a.and w.d.a. (YoY) (Mar)

May 9, 0600

2.6%

2.5%

German Trade Balance (Euros) (Mar)

May 9, 0600

21.5b

19.9b

German Current Account (Euros) (Mar)

May 9, 0600

26.5b

20.4b

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (Mar)

May 9, 0600

0.2%

0.8%

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (Mar)

May 9, 0600

1.6%

-1.6%

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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