We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Breaking news

ECB leaves all rates unchanged in line with expectations

Real Time News
  • US Treasury Yields Update: 2-Year: 1.666% 3-Year: 1.689% 5-Year: 1.726% 7-Year: 1.831% 10-Year: 1.894% 30-Year: 2.331% $TNX
  • Investor focus has shifted towards a new round of expected US tariffs to be place on Chinese goods this Sunday. Get your #gold market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/mKKdwYbtkU $XAUUSD https://t.co/mHtLUEzizl
  • Pairing the Pound's slide to the impressive Aussie Dollar's rally renders the biggest daily $GBPAUD drop since July 29 https://t.co/fYBTsHx9OH
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.38% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.52% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/9cdL4gGW93
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.78% Wall Street: 0.71% Germany 30: 0.66% France 40: 0.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vgpzLly7LV
  • RT @BIS_org: The #euro’s share in terms of #OTCderivatives gross market value rose to 44% in 2019, above the #USdollar share of 24% #Trienn…
  • $USD $DXY: US Dollar Index spiking higher off a critical support level underpinned by the 97.00 handle. The pivot to the upside was sparked by another optimistic #tradetalk headline with the move erasing half of yesterday's downside driven by the December FOMC meeting https://t.co/kTg62HSeH2
  • IMF Spokesman Rice: - Hopeful for progress being made on US-China talks $USDCNH $SPX
  • $USDJPY support held through the $USD sell-off, price action springs to life on the trade deal tweet https://t.co/ekebDkQqzM
  • China calls Trump's bluff markets still don't care https://t.co/GpolEhbrlN
Brexit Briefing: Polls Show UK Ruling Party Extending Its Power Base

Brexit Briefing: Polls Show UK Ruling Party Extending Its Power Base

2017-04-25 14:44:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

- GBP continues to garner strength from strong Conservative Party polling intentions.

- Official data may point to a weakening UK economy, limiting GBP upside.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

In a week when European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and chief negotiator Michel Barnier visit the UK to start Brexit talks with the UK, PM Theresa May will feel emboldened by her current strong standing in the polls ahead of the June 8 UK General Election. A stronger showing in the upcoming election, increasing the Conservative Party’s electoral base, will help the PM push through potentially difficult Brexit bills through both the Lower and Upper Houses.

The latest ComRes voting intention poll shows the Tory Party at 50%, the highest level for any political party since 2002, while the main challenger, Labour, polled 25%. Pollster YouGov showed the Tory party leading the Labour Party by 48% to 25% while the latest Survation poll also gave the government a double-digit lead, but this time of just 11% over the opposition.

And the latest IG poll also showed the ruling party extending its lead, with investors expecting the Tory Party to get 382 seats out of the available 650 in the election against a current count of 330. This majority would leave UK PM May able to push through most bills in the House of Commons without looking for support from other parties. A strong showing would also strengthen the PM’s hand when she hands the final Brexit bill to the House of Lords for approval, with the un-democratically elected institution unlikely to vote against the will of the voters.

The British Pound has kept its recent gains and is trading back up towards levels not seen since October 2016. A break above the 1.29060 level could see GBPUSD push back towards the September 5 high of 1.34457 although data headwinds may limit, or slow, the move.

Chart: GBPUSD WeeklyTimeframe (June 2016 – April 2017)

Brexit Briefing: Polls Show UK Ruling Party Extending Its Power Base

Chart by IG

While political momentum shifts in the government’s favor, recent hard data point to a downturn in the UK economy, with perhaps worse to come as full Brexit talks near post-June 8. The latest retail sales figures posted the biggest quarterly fall since 2010, while recent manufacturing and industrial output data missed expectations. On Friday, the first release of 1Q UK GDP is likely to show the economy growing by just 0.4% against the previous quarter’s 0.7%.

And the latest IG Client Sentiment Indicatorsalso point to further gains for the British Pound.

Why and how we use IG Client Sentiment Indicators in trade setups – See our free guide

Upcoming GBP Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

UK CBI Retailing Reporting Sales

April 27, 0900 GMT

6

9

UK GfK Consumer Confidence (April)

April 27, 2201 GMT

-7

-6

UK Gross Domestic Product (Q-o-Q) 1Q P

April 28, 0830 GMT

0.4%

0.7%

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

0.31%

7,288

DAX

0.17%

12,470

GBP/USD

0.11%

1.28100

EUR/USD

0.41%

1.09130

EUR/GBP

0.31%

0.85180

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Don't trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.