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Brexit Briefing: GBP Bolstered by Early UK Voting Intentions

Brexit Briefing: GBP Bolstered by Early UK Voting Intentions

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

Talking Points

- GBPUSD comfortable above 1.2800

- A strong election showing would give PM May an uplift going into Brexit negotiations

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

A YouGov poll for The Times newspaper has shown support for the ruling Conservative party hitting a nine- year high, as the country prepares to go to the voting booths on June 8. The poll of voting intentions, the first since UK PM May called a General Election on Tuesday, shows Conservative support up four percentage points to 48%, Labour up 1% to 24% and the Liberal Democrats steady at 12%.

According to the article, at the same stage before the 2015 election, YouGov put the Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 33% and the Lib Dems on 8%. The actual result was the Tories on 37%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 8%.

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister, Theresa May polled 54% and Jeremy Corbyn 15%.

If the latest polls are correct and the ruling Conservative Party increases its lead over the opposition, PM May will head into Brexit negotiations emboldened by the knowledge that her political detractors’ powers, especially in the House of Commons, have taken a hit.

And next week, UK PM May will host EU President Jean Claude Juncker and Brussel’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in London on Wednesday April 26 for pre-Brexit negotiation talks.

The British Pound remains well supported, post the election call, and could push further ahead against both the USD and the EUR. In the US, the recent market enthusiasm for an additional two or three interest rate hikes has waned slightly, while all eyes in Europe are on the first round of the French presidential elections, with the four main but very different candidates battling it out to make it into the final two.

Chart: GBPUSD Weekly Timeframe (June 2015 – April 2017)

Chart by IG

And the latest IG Client Sentiment Indicators also point to further gains for the British Pound.

Why and how we use IG Client Sentiment Indicators in trade setups – See our free guide

Upcoming GBP Event Risk

EventsDate, Time (GMT)ForecastPrevious
UK Retail Sales (MoM) MarchApril 21, 0830 -0.5%1.3%
UK Retail Sales (YoY) MarchApril 21, 08303.8%4.1%
UK Public Finances (PSNCR) MarchApril 25, 0830£12.9bn

Markets

Index / Exchange RateChange (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)Market Close/Last
FTSE 100-0.22%7,017
DAX0.14%12,041
GBP/USD0.46%1.28365
EUR/USD0.49%1.07640
EUR/GBP0.04%0.83850

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

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