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Palladium Price Rallies after Rise in China’s Exports

Palladium Price Rallies after Rise in China’s Exports

2014-02-14 14:02:00
Research, Research Team

Main Points:

• Price of palladium rose after surprise jump in China’s January exports

• Palladium price is expected to hit $750 an ounce level in near future

• Supply concerns shall keep the price higher in long-term

The price of palladium jumped more than $13 per ounce on Wednesday to $729 after a government report showed a surprise climb in China’s January exports. The price of palladium is likely to revisit the $750 level in the near future according to technical analysis.

Palladium is being traded near $725 an ounce at 09:15 GMT on Thursday, during the London session. Palladium prices may find support around the $720 to $723 area, which is a confluence of the 50% fib level and both the 100 & 55 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs). A daily close below $720 may extend downside movement up to $716 or even $708. Bias for palladium will remain positive as far as its price remains above $695.

Platinum Price - XPD/USD - Daily Chart

Palladium-Price-Rallies-after-Rise-China-Exports-0012_body_Image37.jpg, Palladium Price Rallies after Rise in China’s Exports

On the upside, palladium prices may face a hurdle near $729, i.e. the 61.8% fib level, and then $738, which is the 76.4% fib level. A break above $738 might threaten the critical resistance level at $751, as demonstrated in the chart above.

The technical indicator, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), is showing a +121 reading on the daily chart. A reading above +100 is believed to be a signal for overbought sentiment among traders. Another technical indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is retreating from overbought zone which shows that we might see a limited correction from current level.

On Wednesday, Chinese authorities revealed that the exports of the Asian nation jumped by 10.6% in January, a figure which was almost six times greater than the median projection of different analysts. The market was expecting only a 2% rise in January exports due to lunar vacations. With a 10.6% rise in exports, China’s total trade surplus has exceeded $31.9 billion, the highest level of surplus in more than 6 years. A sharp increase in exports has also boosted optimism about China’s first quarter growth. Since China is the biggest consumer of Palladium, we therefore observed an upward momentum in the metal's price.

In the long term, the price of palladium is expected to remain higher due to its supply concerns. Last year, Palladium faced around a 740,000 ounce shortfall. This year, analysts are expecting a considerable increase in Palladium demand due to growth optimism in world’s major economies. The demand of palladium is expected to exceed the supply by 1.139 million ounces this year, according to a recent estimate by Citigroup.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance is another major factor that may affect palladium prices in the future. According to many analysts, Fed policymakers intend to get rid of a monthly stimulus worth $65 billion through gradual tapering on every monetary policy meeting, thus completely ending the Quantitative Easing (QE) by October of this year. Since the price of palladium is negatively correlated to the US Dollar (USD), we may see a short-term bearish pressure in the price of the white metal.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.