News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: IBEX 35 Analysis: Rally Continues Despite Virus Fears, Focus Shifts to Fed Link:…
  • RT @FxWestwater: Asia AM - Australian Dollar Forecast: $AUDUSD May Rise on Chinese Industrial Profits Link: https:…
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • 🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Actual: 0.7% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 1.7%
  • 🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) Actual: 5.9% Expected: 6% Previous: 1.9%
  • 🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Actual: 0.7% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 1.7%
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.7% Previous: 1.7%
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 6% Previous: 1.9%
  • (Weekly Technical) Australian Dollar Outlook Still Biased Lower: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD #AUD $AUDUSD $AUDJPY $AUDNZD $AUDCAD
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
Six More Weeks of Winter Brings Cheer to Energy Markets

Six More Weeks of Winter Brings Cheer to Energy Markets

Research, Research Team

Both light, sweet WTI Crude Oil (CFD Ticker: USOIL) and liquefied Natural Gas (CFD Ticker: NGAS) have started to rally the past several days after reaching critical resistance levels.

Concerns in emerging markets combined with speculation that developed economies are starting to slow have helped revive fear in financial markets across the planet. US Treasury yields falling have fallen and stock markets around the world are tumbling. The Japanese Nikkei 225, for example, closed lower by -4.1% on Wednesday and is now down over -15% in the past month.

Recent gains in energy markets may be a result of the combination of both forces. Crude Oil (USOIL) climbed steadily starting in early January, while Natural Gas (NGAS) has surged the past month (and then some). A weak US Dollar is helping these energy markets climb higher (they are priced in USD after all), while so too may the issue of many tense political hotspots popping up around the planet. Geopolitical strife in Latin America, Central Asia, and the MeNa region over the years has often led to higher energy costs.

Six_More_Weeks_of_Winter_Brings_Cheer_to_Energy_Markets_body_CrudeOilDailyChart.png, Six More Weeks of Winter Brings Cheer to Energy Markets

Price action since the last weeks of April has seen both a series of higher highs and higher lows, as well as higher lows and lower highs. In trend terms, USOIL has shifted from an uptrend to a state of consolidation. This consolidation is denoted on the chart with the red trendlines and price currently faces the topside triangle resistance.

USOIL has rallied into the downtrend from the August and December highs (the topside triangle resistance), but bears have been thus far left with a weak reaction. The “sell” signal given by the Slow Stochastic indicator last week failed to exit overbought territory, and price has formed a range between $95.15 and $98.30. Despite today’s Inside Day candlestick forming after two days of modest selling, the Slow Stochastic indicator has flipped back to “sell,” but having not yet left overbought territory yet.

Patience would be one way to describe how the USOIL market is developing. Bulls have a case: the downtrend is breaking. Bears have a case: price is slipping near the breakout level, and the indicators are turning lower. For bulls, a break of the recent high near $98.30 would help drive the market towards the psychologically significant round number $100. For bears, a move below the range low of $95.15 as the indicator is presently positioned should help keep the recent triangle consolidation ongoing.

North American 8-14 Day Forecast: Temperature Probabilities

Natural gas is a slightly different animal than USOIL even though both are cousins in the energy family tree. There have been few enjoyable aspects of the recent cold spell in the United States, but natural gas has been taking it all in step. In fact natural gas demand has been boosted, as evidenced by the recent rise in price, as the cold temperatures have set in. This is an easy enough concept to digest – consumers use more heating oil to fight the intense cold. How intense is the recent cold? On January 7, New York City recorded its lowest temperature since 1896 at 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Six_More_Weeks_of_Winter_Brings_Cheer_to_Energy_Markets_body_NaturalGas-USTemperatures.png, Six More Weeks of Winter Brings Cheer to Energy Markets

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA)’s 8-14 day forecast shows that warmer temperatures are starting to return, especially to the southern parts of the United States. Natural gas’ best run of recent occurred when the more southern parts of the country were impacted – no surprise there considering the abnormal weather would leave the average person unprepared.

Demand has skyrocketed now for natural gas, if one thing is certain. Bentek Energy, an energy information company, compiled data that showed that January natural gas demand averaged 102 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, almost 8 bcf/day above than the prior highest monthly average. In total, this resulted in 241 bcf consumed in January – more than any other month, ever. As another storm approaches the densest population areas of the country in the North and Northeast, demand for gas may yet be supported with below average temperatures due over the coming 8-14 day period.

Forex Technical Analysis: Natural Gas (NGAS) Weekly Chart

Six_More_Weeks_of_Winter_Brings_Cheer_to_Energy_Markets_body_NaturalGas-WeeklyPriceChart.png, Six More Weeks of Winter Brings Cheer to Energy Markets

The NGAS breakout above $4.430 has been violent, with a maximum gain approaching 30% to the January high. We’ve seen some big moves downward too, now that price has traded between $4.715 and $5.480 in just the past two trading weeks alone. Price has started to turn higher in spite of the recent “sell” signal issued in the Slow Stochastic indicator, and it is very possible that a “buy” signal is issued in the next day or two.

Even though NGAS appears bullish, the volatility seen is a caution for traders. The recent range offers tradable reference points, irrespective of trading style. Range traders can look for trades as long as price holds between $4.715 and $5.480. Breakout traders can wait for price to clear either side of the range to look for a move.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.