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Crude Oil - Outlook for the Week of Feb 4

Crude Oil - Outlook for the Week of Feb 4

Research, Research Team
  • Light, sweet crude ended the week with gains of 0.88 percent, settling at $97.49 to a barrel on Friday.
  • Crude oil for March delivery opened the week on a positive note, extending its winning streak to the first three sessions of the week, before giving back some of the gains in the latter half of the week, still managing to close the third successive week in the green.
  • The decline started late into Wednesday’s session after the release of crude oil inventories data.
  • The build up at Cushing Oklahoma, where the benchmark crude oil futures contracts are priced, was up 237k barrels.
  • However, gasoline and distillate inventories registered declines by 819K and 4.58 million barrels, consequently.

Highlights:

Light, sweet crude ended the week with gains of 0.88 percent, settling at $97.49 to a barrel on Friday. Crude oil for March delivery opened the week on a positive note, extending its winning streak to the first three sessions of the week, before giving back some of the gains in the latter half of the week, still managing to close the third successive week in the green. The decline started late into Wednesday’s session after the release of crude oil inventories data.

The data showed crude oil inventories rose by 6.42 million barrels in the latest week after a 990k increase the week earlier. The build up at Cushing Oklahoma, where the benchmark crude oil futures contracts are priced, was up 237k barrels. However, gasoline and distillate inventories registered declines by 819K and 4.58 million barrels, consequently.

Crude_Oil_WTI_Weekly-_4th_February_2014_body_CrudeOilPricesNYMEX.png, Crude Oil - Outlook for the Week of Feb 4

The Week Ahead

Technical view:

WTI Crude for March delivery settled at $96.43 on Monday, down 1.08% day- on- day and extending its losses to the second straight session. Crude prices came within striking distance of crucial near term resistances at $100.00 a barrel; top end of the near term bearish channel, with trend lines drawn from the highs of December last year.

Close above and the near term bearish trend would have been negated and prices could have rallied to $110.00- 112.00. However, that was not to be as prices slipped below $97.50, after breaching them briefly; trend lines connecting the highs of August and December last year. Crucial near term supports at $96.00, close below and the losses are likely to extend to $90.00- 92.00; bottom end of the near term bearish channel.

For the week, prices could continue oscillating in the $90.00-92.00 range on the lower end and $99.00- 100.00 on the upside. Strategy- Look to short crude futures on gains from $99.00- 100.00. Short positions on crude oil can also be initiated at the break of $95.00 with tight stops for targets closer to the lower end of the weekly range.

Strategy:

Look to short crude futures on gains from $99.00- 100.00. Short positions on crude oil can also be initiated at the break of $95.00 with tight stops for targets closer to the lower end of the weekly range.

Crude_Oil_WTI_Weekly-_4th_February_2014_body_CrudeOilWeeklyChart.png, Crude Oil - Outlook for the Week of Feb 4

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